Showing newest 92 of 138 posts from October 2009. Show older posts
Showing newest 92 of 138 posts from October 2009. Show older posts
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Boom and Gloom
Boom and Gloom
Investors are bidding up stocks, gold, and oil to dizzying heights. It's déja vu all over again.
By Newsweek
The Recession Has Ended. Has the Bull Market Also?
The Recession Has Ended. Has the Bull Market Also?
The Great Recession has ended. Halleluiah! It was the worst recession in many ways since the Great D. . . . Just imagine, after four straight negative quarters the economy recovered in the third quarter. Not only did it recover, but GDP rose 3.5% in the third quarter, even more than the consensus forecast of 3.2%.
The relief is so great you can . . . . . well, you can hardly detect it.
By Sy Harding Blog
New Commercial Real Estate Accounting Rules: Cooking The Books
New Commercial Real Estate Accounting Rules: Cooking The Books
New guidelines for examining commercial real estate loans issued by the FDIC appear to allow examiners to go easy on banks as they account for what would be, under many circumstances, considered non-performing commercial real estate loans. This may help banks with their balance sheets and solvency, but it also misleads bank investors and the public about the seriousness of the huge problem in the commercial real estate lending business.By 24/7 Wall Street
Madoff On The SEC: They Could Have Caught Me With A Single Phone Call
Madoff On The SEC: They Could Have Caught Me With A Single Phone Call
Last June, the SEC went to see Bernie Madoff in jail to ask him how they had failed to catch him. The SEC's summary of the interview is below.The bottom line: It was "amazing" to Madoff that he didn't get caught...because the SEC could have caught him with a single phone call.
By Henry Blodget- Clusterstock
Yankees World Series Gigapan Photo
Yankees World Series Gigapan Photo
This is amazing. You can zoom in on ANY seat from the Yankees World Series game. See if you can find Derek Jeeters girlfriend Minka Kelly!She is sitting next to Kate Hudson.
By: Gigapan.com
This is amazing. You can zoom in on ANY seat from the Yankees World Series game. See if you can find Derek Jeeters girlfriend Minka Kelly!She is sitting next to Kate Hudson.
By: Gigapan.com
Friday, October 30, 2009
Seven Trading Lessons from a Legend
Seven Trading Lessons from a Legend
Nowhere is this rule more apparent than in the modern-day crash our markets experienced in the fall of 2008. For those market participants who “bought, held, and hoped,” the gut-wrenching drop left them paralyzed, disillusioned, and angry at the market. They felt like they had no control and no choice as the losses spiraled down the rabbit hole. The primary culprits of this death trap are hopeful thinking and fearful paranoia.
Click here for the seven lessons-
By: Minyanville
Nowhere is this rule more apparent than in the modern-day crash our markets experienced in the fall of 2008. For those market participants who “bought, held, and hoped,” the gut-wrenching drop left them paralyzed, disillusioned, and angry at the market. They felt like they had no control and no choice as the losses spiraled down the rabbit hole. The primary culprits of this death trap are hopeful thinking and fearful paranoia.
Click here for the seven lessons-
By: Minyanville
Takeaway from Bill Gross's Latest Letter
Takeaway from Bill Gross's Latest Letter
Bill Gross, PIMCO’s revered managing director, has just published his most recent investment outlook. In it, he calls the end of the recent market rally and warns of a necessity to come to grips with the fact that a new normal is headed our way. The closing sentences sum up his point nicely and he puts a stake in the ground as far as his belief of expected investment returns on a going-forward basis (emphasis mine):
Investors must recognize that if assets appreciate with nominal GDP, a 4–5% return is about all they can expect even with abnormally low policy rates. Rage, rage, against this conclusion if you wish, but the six-month rally in risk assets – while still continuously supported by Fed and Treasury policymakers – is likely at its pinnacle. Out, out, brief candle.
By: Seeking Alpha
Bill Gross, PIMCO’s revered managing director, has just published his most recent investment outlook. In it, he calls the end of the recent market rally and warns of a necessity to come to grips with the fact that a new normal is headed our way. The closing sentences sum up his point nicely and he puts a stake in the ground as far as his belief of expected investment returns on a going-forward basis (emphasis mine):
Investors must recognize that if assets appreciate with nominal GDP, a 4–5% return is about all they can expect even with abnormally low policy rates. Rage, rage, against this conclusion if you wish, but the six-month rally in risk assets – while still continuously supported by Fed and Treasury policymakers – is likely at its pinnacle. Out, out, brief candle.
By: Seeking Alpha
Google Should Make Apple Beg for Maps Navigation
Google Should Make Apple Beg for Maps Navigation
When Google (GOOG) announced what is clearly the best car navigation application on any mobile Wednesday, it didn’t just take a swipe at GPS navigation companies such as Garmin (GRMN) and TomTom (TMOAF.PK). It took a swipe at Apple (AAPL).
By Seeking Alpha
When Google (GOOG) announced what is clearly the best car navigation application on any mobile Wednesday, it didn’t just take a swipe at GPS navigation companies such as Garmin (GRMN) and TomTom (TMOAF.PK). It took a swipe at Apple (AAPL).
By Seeking Alpha
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Andre Agassi- Crystal meth, hair weaves and majors
Andre Agassi- Crystal meth, hair weaves and majors
If image really is everything, why would Andre Agassi admit in his new book that he used crystal meth? Not once but dozens of times? And why would he admit he lied about it to the Association of Tennis Professionals?
Why would a son admit how much he feared his Iranian father -- feared him and hated him since the age of 7? And why -- why! -- would a man admit he wore perhaps the world's only Mohawk toupee?
Why? Because this isn't just any book.
This is Agassi's mea culpa -- "Open" (from Knopf, written with Pulitzer Prize winner J.R. Moehringer) -- and from the beginning, he and Moehringer set out to write the most revealing, literate and toes-stompingly honest sports autobiography in history. From the parts I've been allowed to read, they might have done it.
"I just tell people, this book is honest," says Agassi, who worked with Moehringer for a full year, meeting nearly daily at the Las Vegas house Agassi once lived in with Brooke Shields. "It lives up to the title. It's my life, for better or worse. Get ready, buckle up, and keep your arms and legs inside the vehicle at all times."
More on Agassi
Check out a photo gallery of Agassi's life and career. Zoom
"Open" is the story of a flawed man who sees everybody's imperfections, but none more than his own. It's the tale of a man who knows how low he sunk if only because of the grand view he has now.
Agassi's early life was not his, never his, not from the beginning, not from the time his Olympic boxer father built a backyard prison especially for him, a tennis court he was figuratively chained to day after day, while his father's homemade ball machine -- the dragon, Agassi called it -- ceaselessly spit out balls faster, harder, forever.
Agassi bucked against tennis like a horse with a two-sizes-too-small bit. But he could not escape it. And so his life became a kind of lie, from his shoelace groundstrokes to his Mohawk, a hairpiece that once came apart in the shower before the French Open. The day was saved by bobby pins.
Your own life is hard enough. Living somebody else's life for them weighs on a man like a stone backpack. By 1997 -- even after winning an Olympic gold medal in 1996 -- Agassi was down, depressed and stuck playing a game he didn't love. He was physically wrecked (wrist) and emotionally spent. He was with the wrong woman -- Shields -- and knew it.
He'd sunk to No. 141 in the world. He recalls that he was sitting at home when his assistant, Slim, introduced him to one of the most addictive substances known to man:
Slim says, You want to get high with me?
On what?
Gack.
What the hell's gack?
Crystal meth.
Why do they call it gack?
Because that's the sound you make when you're high. Make you feel like Superman, dude.
As if they're coming out of someone else's mouth, I hear these words: You know what? F*** it. Yeah. Let's get high.
Agassi pulled himself out of the French Open that year and hardly practiced for Wimbledon. That fall, it got worse. The ATP informed him at the end of 1997 that he'd flunked a drug test. He would likely be looking at a three-month suspension. He would probably lose all his endorsements and most of his fans.
What to do? Keep lying.
Agassi admits he wrote a letter to the ATP saying Slim accidentally "spiked" his drink, that it was not his fault. The ATP dropped the flunked test, with no discipline for Agassi. He admits in the book he felt "ashamed."
It was the lowest point in a life that would suddenly begin to soar. You can condemn Agassi all you want for the crystal meth -- and he'd deserve it -- but remember, Agassi dropped the habit soon after. Then, in 1998, he made the biggest one-year jump into the Top 10 in the history of the ATP Rankings, going from his year-end 122 to No. 6. He'd win five of his eight major titles after finding the bottom.
They call Agassi the greatest returner in history. They aren't kidding.
We all know what became of the showy, glitzy kid with all that fake hair and real talent. He shaved his hair off. He started being real. He learned to love tennis, and tennis learned to love him. The kid who never got past the ninth grade in school wound up funding and running the prestigious Andre Agassi College Preparatory Academy in Las Vegas. The man who couldn't find the right woman finally married the one everybody wanted -- tennis goddess Steffi Graf. And the son who hated his father learned to love him and his own two kids.
Why is Agassi so scorchingly honest in these excerpts? Maybe because he once lived enough lies for five men. Or maybe because, as an educator, he's heard the truth can set him free.
But hopefully, by the time you close "Open," you'll know that this book is about more than the wrong turns he took. It's about how that broken road led him straight to the good man he is now.
By ESPN Rick Reilly
If image really is everything, why would Andre Agassi admit in his new book that he used crystal meth? Not once but dozens of times? And why would he admit he lied about it to the Association of Tennis Professionals?
Why would a son admit how much he feared his Iranian father -- feared him and hated him since the age of 7? And why -- why! -- would a man admit he wore perhaps the world's only Mohawk toupee?
Why? Because this isn't just any book.
This is Agassi's mea culpa -- "Open" (from Knopf, written with Pulitzer Prize winner J.R. Moehringer) -- and from the beginning, he and Moehringer set out to write the most revealing, literate and toes-stompingly honest sports autobiography in history. From the parts I've been allowed to read, they might have done it.
"I just tell people, this book is honest," says Agassi, who worked with Moehringer for a full year, meeting nearly daily at the Las Vegas house Agassi once lived in with Brooke Shields. "It lives up to the title. It's my life, for better or worse. Get ready, buckle up, and keep your arms and legs inside the vehicle at all times."
More on Agassi
Check out a photo gallery of Agassi's life and career. Zoom
"Open" is the story of a flawed man who sees everybody's imperfections, but none more than his own. It's the tale of a man who knows how low he sunk if only because of the grand view he has now.
Agassi's early life was not his, never his, not from the beginning, not from the time his Olympic boxer father built a backyard prison especially for him, a tennis court he was figuratively chained to day after day, while his father's homemade ball machine -- the dragon, Agassi called it -- ceaselessly spit out balls faster, harder, forever.
Agassi bucked against tennis like a horse with a two-sizes-too-small bit. But he could not escape it. And so his life became a kind of lie, from his shoelace groundstrokes to his Mohawk, a hairpiece that once came apart in the shower before the French Open. The day was saved by bobby pins.
Your own life is hard enough. Living somebody else's life for them weighs on a man like a stone backpack. By 1997 -- even after winning an Olympic gold medal in 1996 -- Agassi was down, depressed and stuck playing a game he didn't love. He was physically wrecked (wrist) and emotionally spent. He was with the wrong woman -- Shields -- and knew it.
He'd sunk to No. 141 in the world. He recalls that he was sitting at home when his assistant, Slim, introduced him to one of the most addictive substances known to man:
Slim says, You want to get high with me?
On what?
Gack.
What the hell's gack?
Crystal meth.
Why do they call it gack?
Because that's the sound you make when you're high. Make you feel like Superman, dude.
As if they're coming out of someone else's mouth, I hear these words: You know what? F*** it. Yeah. Let's get high.
Agassi pulled himself out of the French Open that year and hardly practiced for Wimbledon. That fall, it got worse. The ATP informed him at the end of 1997 that he'd flunked a drug test. He would likely be looking at a three-month suspension. He would probably lose all his endorsements and most of his fans.
What to do? Keep lying.
Agassi admits he wrote a letter to the ATP saying Slim accidentally "spiked" his drink, that it was not his fault. The ATP dropped the flunked test, with no discipline for Agassi. He admits in the book he felt "ashamed."
It was the lowest point in a life that would suddenly begin to soar. You can condemn Agassi all you want for the crystal meth -- and he'd deserve it -- but remember, Agassi dropped the habit soon after. Then, in 1998, he made the biggest one-year jump into the Top 10 in the history of the ATP Rankings, going from his year-end 122 to No. 6. He'd win five of his eight major titles after finding the bottom.
They call Agassi the greatest returner in history. They aren't kidding.
We all know what became of the showy, glitzy kid with all that fake hair and real talent. He shaved his hair off. He started being real. He learned to love tennis, and tennis learned to love him. The kid who never got past the ninth grade in school wound up funding and running the prestigious Andre Agassi College Preparatory Academy in Las Vegas. The man who couldn't find the right woman finally married the one everybody wanted -- tennis goddess Steffi Graf. And the son who hated his father learned to love him and his own two kids.
Why is Agassi so scorchingly honest in these excerpts? Maybe because he once lived enough lies for five men. Or maybe because, as an educator, he's heard the truth can set him free.
But hopefully, by the time you close "Open," you'll know that this book is about more than the wrong turns he took. It's about how that broken road led him straight to the good man he is now.
By ESPN Rick Reilly
Be Prepared for the Worst
Be Prepared for the Worst
A false recovery is under way. I am reminded of the outlook in 1930, when the experts were certain that the worst of the Depression was over and that recovery was just around the corner. The economy and stock market seemed to be recovering, and there was optimism that the recession, like many of those before it, would be over in a year or less. Instead, the interventionist policies of Hoover and Roosevelt caused the Depression to worsen, and the Dow Jones industrial average did not recover to 1929 levels until 1954. I fear that our stimulus and bailout programs have already done too much to prevent the economy from recovering in a natural manner and will result in yet another asset bubble
By Forbes.com
A false recovery is under way. I am reminded of the outlook in 1930, when the experts were certain that the worst of the Depression was over and that recovery was just around the corner. The economy and stock market seemed to be recovering, and there was optimism that the recession, like many of those before it, would be over in a year or less. Instead, the interventionist policies of Hoover and Roosevelt caused the Depression to worsen, and the Dow Jones industrial average did not recover to 1929 levels until 1954. I fear that our stimulus and bailout programs have already done too much to prevent the economy from recovering in a natural manner and will result in yet another asset bubble
By Forbes.com
Goldman, of course, is a microcosm -- a very large microcosm -- of Wall Street's evolution, at least among the larger firms, from a predominately inte
Goldman, of course, is a microcosm -- a very large microcosm -- of Wall Street's evolution, at least among the larger firms, from a predominately intermediary or adviser to a principal investor.
It would reduce the risk profile of the investment banks by removing proprietary trading. It would also end the conflicts of interest in investment banks managing an opaque cocktail of their own and other people's money while simultaneously being advisers and financiers on private equity deals.
And, Gapper declares, breaking up is easy to do, despite "some politicians and regulators who argued that modern-day finance is too complex to be divided and those who suggest such divisions are being simplistic. But a three-way split would be easy enough to implement given the will."
By: The Deal.com
It would reduce the risk profile of the investment banks by removing proprietary trading. It would also end the conflicts of interest in investment banks managing an opaque cocktail of their own and other people's money while simultaneously being advisers and financiers on private equity deals.
And, Gapper declares, breaking up is easy to do, despite "some politicians and regulators who argued that modern-day finance is too complex to be divided and those who suggest such divisions are being simplistic. But a three-way split would be easy enough to implement given the will."
By: The Deal.com
Why Natural Gas Investors Are Getting Screwed Out Of The Rally (UNG)
Why Natural Gas Investors Are Getting Screwed Out Of The Rally (UNG)
An investment in the ETF United States Natural Gas (UNG), for example, hasn't worked out too well on anything but a very recent time line.
And yet at the same time, other commodities like gold, oil, and lately even copper have been on fire.
Thus we though it's worthwhile to take stock of the long list of threats to natural gas, and why they're a problem for investors. For consumers, cheap gas is of course great news...
All The Reasons To Hate Natural Gas
By The Money Game
An investment in the ETF United States Natural Gas (UNG), for example, hasn't worked out too well on anything but a very recent time line.
And yet at the same time, other commodities like gold, oil, and lately even copper have been on fire.
Thus we though it's worthwhile to take stock of the long list of threats to natural gas, and why they're a problem for investors. For consumers, cheap gas is of course great news...
All The Reasons To Hate Natural Gas
By The Money Game
Four Long Ideas, Two Short Ideas from the Latest Value Investing Congress
Four Long Ideas, Two Short Ideas from the Latest Value Investing Congress
Last week I attended the Value Investing Congress in New York. The speakers were top notch and the presentations were very engaging.
I enjoyed hearing the speakers discuss their investment processes. Lloyd Khaner’s talk on turnarounds was very well done. Also, various presentations on the continued weak state of the housing market were very informative. Overall, the tone was pretty bearish on the economy and the markets. Many of the presenters professed concern about overvaluation but projected a sense of “the show must go on… so here are my stock picks."
I agree that the markets feel stretched based on the woeful state of the consumer but some of the picks are worth watching. Some longs do go up when markets go down. Even better is to pick up great stocks on sale if the market does turn down again. My favorites of the conference were:
Small Cap Long Ideas – Risky companies
Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM) – Whitney Tilson and Glenn Tongue presented an interesting pitch for Iridium (yes, the formerly bankrupt satellite phone company that used to be a punchline!). According to Whitney and Glenn, Iridium has an unrivaled set of assets (satellites and services). Iridium reaches 90+% of the globe which has no cell towers (e.g. ocean, dessert, mountains). The company was purchased by a SPAC a year ago on favorable terms. Non-voice data services are growing dramatically and the voice business is growing nicely. The bear case on IRDM is that they plan to launch a new constellation of satellites starting in 2014. Whitney and Glenn believe that IRDM might be about to launch it without borrowing funds.
Core-Mark (CORE) – Kian Ghazi provided a detailed bull case for Core Mark, a convenience store distribution player. CORE is the number two operator behind Mclane (a Berkshire company). Kian claims that while distribution may not be a sexy business, it can be a defensible one if the following conditions are met: high route density for drop-offs, highly fragmented, high switching costs and small drops with lots of stops. In his opinion, CORE benefits from all of these. His bullish case for them rests on an emerging part of their business: fresh food (prepared fruit cups, sandwiches, etc). This high margin, high growth business should more than offset the secular decline in low margin cigarette business which is a big part of CORE existing revenue.
Mid / Large Caps Long Ideas – Safer, less risk of massive downside
Corrections Corp. of America (CXW) – Bill Ackman sparked a rally in Corrections Corp. when he revealed he owned a 9+% stake (which hadn’t been publicly disclosed yet). His pitch was funny and well thought out: CXW is largely an inexpensive, safe real estate play with extremely creditworthy tenants, secular growth and room for market share gains. He claimed that private prisons operate more effectively than public ones on many levels and that the trend will be towards privatization (especially for new prisons). The stock probably won’t double but he thinks it has upside to $40-50+.
Laboratory Corp. of America Holdings (LH) – Zeke Ashton laid out the case for Labcorp, the number two provider of laboratory testing behind Quest Diagnostics. The growth rate of the company is high, the industry pretty defensible. The only issue is a biggie though – healthcare reform. The lab testing business has been bandied about as a rich target for cost cutting, but Zeke thinks that the concerns here are overblown. There may even be a scenario in which LH and Quest benefit from expanded coverage and testing.
Shorts - Proceed with caution
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction (ITB) – Whitney Tilson presented the housing stock ETF as a short based on an updated version of his voluminous housing “head fake” presentation. It lays out a compelling story that housing has not yet bottomed because of shadow inventory (7 million homes in various stages of delinquency and foreclosure), option-ARM exposure peaking in 2011, a stretched consumer, removal of stimulus and the eventual rise in interest rates. His take was that there are more than enough homes for those that can afford to buy them and that the housing companies should basically build nothing for years.
Realty Income Corp. (O) – Bill Ackman spoke briefly about shorting Realty Income – the “monthly dividend company”. This is a company he has previously criticized for having risky tenants who have done sale-leaseback transactions with Realty Income. He expects that the company will have a radical valuation readjustment once the market realizes that the dividend is not safe. The company does a lot of shareholder marketing focusing on the dividend and if (when, according to Ackman) O sustains credit losses in its weak portfolio they will need to cut the dividend.
Overall, the conference was very interesting. The slides from all the presentations were available after the conference as well.
By: Seeking Alpha
Last week I attended the Value Investing Congress in New York. The speakers were top notch and the presentations were very engaging.
I enjoyed hearing the speakers discuss their investment processes. Lloyd Khaner’s talk on turnarounds was very well done. Also, various presentations on the continued weak state of the housing market were very informative. Overall, the tone was pretty bearish on the economy and the markets. Many of the presenters professed concern about overvaluation but projected a sense of “the show must go on… so here are my stock picks."
I agree that the markets feel stretched based on the woeful state of the consumer but some of the picks are worth watching. Some longs do go up when markets go down. Even better is to pick up great stocks on sale if the market does turn down again. My favorites of the conference were:
Small Cap Long Ideas – Risky companies
Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM) – Whitney Tilson and Glenn Tongue presented an interesting pitch for Iridium (yes, the formerly bankrupt satellite phone company that used to be a punchline!). According to Whitney and Glenn, Iridium has an unrivaled set of assets (satellites and services). Iridium reaches 90+% of the globe which has no cell towers (e.g. ocean, dessert, mountains). The company was purchased by a SPAC a year ago on favorable terms. Non-voice data services are growing dramatically and the voice business is growing nicely. The bear case on IRDM is that they plan to launch a new constellation of satellites starting in 2014. Whitney and Glenn believe that IRDM might be about to launch it without borrowing funds.
Core-Mark (CORE) – Kian Ghazi provided a detailed bull case for Core Mark, a convenience store distribution player. CORE is the number two operator behind Mclane (a Berkshire company). Kian claims that while distribution may not be a sexy business, it can be a defensible one if the following conditions are met: high route density for drop-offs, highly fragmented, high switching costs and small drops with lots of stops. In his opinion, CORE benefits from all of these. His bullish case for them rests on an emerging part of their business: fresh food (prepared fruit cups, sandwiches, etc). This high margin, high growth business should more than offset the secular decline in low margin cigarette business which is a big part of CORE existing revenue.
Mid / Large Caps Long Ideas – Safer, less risk of massive downside
Corrections Corp. of America (CXW) – Bill Ackman sparked a rally in Corrections Corp. when he revealed he owned a 9+% stake (which hadn’t been publicly disclosed yet). His pitch was funny and well thought out: CXW is largely an inexpensive, safe real estate play with extremely creditworthy tenants, secular growth and room for market share gains. He claimed that private prisons operate more effectively than public ones on many levels and that the trend will be towards privatization (especially for new prisons). The stock probably won’t double but he thinks it has upside to $40-50+.
Laboratory Corp. of America Holdings (LH) – Zeke Ashton laid out the case for Labcorp, the number two provider of laboratory testing behind Quest Diagnostics. The growth rate of the company is high, the industry pretty defensible. The only issue is a biggie though – healthcare reform. The lab testing business has been bandied about as a rich target for cost cutting, but Zeke thinks that the concerns here are overblown. There may even be a scenario in which LH and Quest benefit from expanded coverage and testing.
Shorts - Proceed with caution
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction (ITB) – Whitney Tilson presented the housing stock ETF as a short based on an updated version of his voluminous housing “head fake” presentation. It lays out a compelling story that housing has not yet bottomed because of shadow inventory (7 million homes in various stages of delinquency and foreclosure), option-ARM exposure peaking in 2011, a stretched consumer, removal of stimulus and the eventual rise in interest rates. His take was that there are more than enough homes for those that can afford to buy them and that the housing companies should basically build nothing for years.
Realty Income Corp. (O) – Bill Ackman spoke briefly about shorting Realty Income – the “monthly dividend company”. This is a company he has previously criticized for having risky tenants who have done sale-leaseback transactions with Realty Income. He expects that the company will have a radical valuation readjustment once the market realizes that the dividend is not safe. The company does a lot of shareholder marketing focusing on the dividend and if (when, according to Ackman) O sustains credit losses in its weak portfolio they will need to cut the dividend.
Overall, the conference was very interesting. The slides from all the presentations were available after the conference as well.
By: Seeking Alpha
Contrarians Denninger, Dent, Faber and Hoye Looking for Dollar Rebound
Contrarians Denninger, Dent, Faber and Hoye Looking for Dollar Rebound
While it seems that most market participants are looking for a continued rise in stock prices and deterioration of the US Dollar in the near-term, leading contrarian investors like Karl Denninger, Marc Faber, Bob Hoye and Harry Dent have a different take.
By Seeking Alpha
While it seems that most market participants are looking for a continued rise in stock prices and deterioration of the US Dollar in the near-term, leading contrarian investors like Karl Denninger, Marc Faber, Bob Hoye and Harry Dent have a different take.
By Seeking Alpha
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Goldman: Cash On The Sidelines Is WAY Less Than People Think
Goldman: Cash On The Sidelines Is WAY Less Than People Think
Goldman Sachs (GS) analyst David Kostin argues that investors are wildly confused about "cash on the sidelines," how much there is, and how much of it is likely to flow into equities.
The report cites numerous conversations in which the number "$3 trillion" has come up for the amount of cash that can be put to work. But that's nonsense, because it's based on this simplistic idea that money market funds
(cash on the sidelines) are mostly would-be equity investors, and that they'd draw it all down
By:The Money Game
Goldman Sachs (GS) analyst David Kostin argues that investors are wildly confused about "cash on the sidelines," how much there is, and how much of it is likely to flow into equities.
The report cites numerous conversations in which the number "$3 trillion" has come up for the amount of cash that can be put to work. But that's nonsense, because it's based on this simplistic idea that money market funds
(cash on the sidelines) are mostly would-be equity investors, and that they'd draw it all down
By:The Money Game
IndexIQ's New ETFs Offer Investors Two Ways to Hedge Against Inflation
IndexIQ's New ETFs Offer Investors Two Ways to Hedge Against Inflation
IndexIQ, a pioneer in the hedge fund ETF industry, has expanded its product line to include two new ETFs designed to provide protection against inflation: the IQ CPI Inflation Hedged ETF (CPI) and IQ ARB Global Resources ETF (GRES). These ETFs hit the market at a time when investors are becoming increasingly concerned about the intermediate and long-term impact of massive stimulus plans implemented to combat the recent recession. Although deflation is a more immediate concern, worries about runaway inflation over the next 24 months have investors seeking out options to provide a real return and protect their assets.
By: Seeking Alpha
IndexIQ, a pioneer in the hedge fund ETF industry, has expanded its product line to include two new ETFs designed to provide protection against inflation: the IQ CPI Inflation Hedged ETF (CPI) and IQ ARB Global Resources ETF (GRES). These ETFs hit the market at a time when investors are becoming increasingly concerned about the intermediate and long-term impact of massive stimulus plans implemented to combat the recent recession. Although deflation is a more immediate concern, worries about runaway inflation over the next 24 months have investors seeking out options to provide a real return and protect their assets.
By: Seeking Alpha
Sam Zell: No Newspapers Can Survive
Sam Zell: No Newspapers Can Survive
When posed with the question of whether or not he regrets his Tribune deal, Sam Zell admitted, "It's certainly the most amount of money I ever lost in a single deal."
He goes on to say that the entire newspaper industry, including Tribune, has seen a crash in revenue, and that "nobody can survive."
By: Silicon Valley Insider
When posed with the question of whether or not he regrets his Tribune deal, Sam Zell admitted, "It's certainly the most amount of money I ever lost in a single deal."
He goes on to say that the entire newspaper industry, including Tribune, has seen a crash in revenue, and that "nobody can survive."
By: Silicon Valley Insider
George Soros: Substantial risk of another downturn
George Soros: Substantial risk of another downturn
...Although Soros has turned more bullish over the course of the last 6 months he has not lost sight of the forest for the trees.In a recent interview, he said the market is now very overextended and at substantial risk of another downturn. But that doesn't mean the market will turn down immediately. Soros says the market is likely to remain buoyant throughout the remainder of 2009 and will likely face its reality of weak global growth in 2010. He says the rally has been driven by the government stimulus and little else. Soros says the recent uptick in bank earnings is essentially a fraud:Soros recently said the move down in the dollar was unsustainable (he obviously reads too much TPC) and that its link to the Renminbi would reduce the overall decline. Despite this, Soros is betting big on all things "real". In particular, Soros is betting big on...Read full article...
By: The Daily Crux
...Although Soros has turned more bullish over the course of the last 6 months he has not lost sight of the forest for the trees.In a recent interview, he said the market is now very overextended and at substantial risk of another downturn. But that doesn't mean the market will turn down immediately. Soros says the market is likely to remain buoyant throughout the remainder of 2009 and will likely face its reality of weak global growth in 2010. He says the rally has been driven by the government stimulus and little else. Soros says the recent uptick in bank earnings is essentially a fraud:Soros recently said the move down in the dollar was unsustainable (he obviously reads too much TPC) and that its link to the Renminbi would reduce the overall decline. Despite this, Soros is betting big on all things "real". In particular, Soros is betting big on...Read full article...
By: The Daily Crux
Financial Advisors Beware- Fiduciary duty and adviser oversight remain regulatory hot topics
Financial Advisors Beware- Fiduciary duty and adviser oversight remain regulatory hot topics
In addition to the fiduciary issue, investment adviser oversight appears to be another burning topic on legislators' and regulators' minds this week. In particular, Congressman Paul Kanjorski is expected to offer an amendment to the Investor Protection Act that would seek to raise the $25 million assets under management threshold for investment adviser federal registration to $150 million in order to reduce the number of investment advisers subject to SEC regulation. It's not clear, however, how much support the amendment will garner from other legislators. State securities regulators previously advocated to Congress that the threshold be raised to $100 million, a change the SEC appears to be interested in considering and could make if legislators fail to act.
By: FI360 blog
In addition to the fiduciary issue, investment adviser oversight appears to be another burning topic on legislators' and regulators' minds this week. In particular, Congressman Paul Kanjorski is expected to offer an amendment to the Investor Protection Act that would seek to raise the $25 million assets under management threshold for investment adviser federal registration to $150 million in order to reduce the number of investment advisers subject to SEC regulation. It's not clear, however, how much support the amendment will garner from other legislators. State securities regulators previously advocated to Congress that the threshold be raised to $100 million, a change the SEC appears to be interested in considering and could make if legislators fail to act.
By: FI360 blog
The Next Step in the Bank Implosion Cycle
The Next Step in the Bank Implosion Cycle
Of the many issues that I have been warning about concerning banks, their balance sheets and the risks that they take, one of the (and there are a few) most underappreciated is the currency risk of the "mother of all carry trades". See Roubini Not Alone in Fearing Dollar Carry Trade and Roubini Sees `Huge' Asset Bubbles Growing in `Mother of All Carry Trades'.
Investors worldwide are borrowing dollars to buy assets including equities and commodities, fueling “huge” bubbles that may spark another financial crisis, said New York University professor Nouriel Roubini.
By Seeking Alpha
Of the many issues that I have been warning about concerning banks, their balance sheets and the risks that they take, one of the (and there are a few) most underappreciated is the currency risk of the "mother of all carry trades". See Roubini Not Alone in Fearing Dollar Carry Trade and Roubini Sees `Huge' Asset Bubbles Growing in `Mother of All Carry Trades'.
Investors worldwide are borrowing dollars to buy assets including equities and commodities, fueling “huge” bubbles that may spark another financial crisis, said New York University professor Nouriel Roubini.
By Seeking Alpha
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Shorting U.S. debt is a sure bet
Shorting U.S. debt is a sure bet
Paolo Pellegrini, the hedge-fund manager who helped John Paulson rack up over $3 billion betting on the U.S. housing crash, said "the only attractive" investment he sees today is shorting long-term U.S. debt. He thinks it's overpriced and due for a significant fall.“I always like to think about assets that are likely to experience a breakdown; the only thing I’m pretty comfortable with right now is U.S. Treasury securities and U.S. agency mortgage-backed securities,” he said.
By The Daily Crux
Paolo Pellegrini, the hedge-fund manager who helped John Paulson rack up over $3 billion betting on the U.S. housing crash, said "the only attractive" investment he sees today is shorting long-term U.S. debt. He thinks it's overpriced and due for a significant fall.“I always like to think about assets that are likely to experience a breakdown; the only thing I’m pretty comfortable with right now is U.S. Treasury securities and U.S. agency mortgage-backed securities,” he said.
By The Daily Crux
Derek Jeter has all the luck
Derek Jeter has all the luck
His girlfriend is Minka Kelly- she is beautiful-see photo
His girlfriend is Minka Kelly- she is beautiful-see photo
Gartman: The Market's Screwed If Apple Can't Hold $200
Gartman: The Market's Screwed If Apple Can't Hold $200
Analyst Dennis Gartman touched on an important, yet brief point in his Gartman Letter this morning. He believes Apple (AAPL) has emerged as a new market leader, along with Amazon (AMZN) and Goldman Sachs (GS). He fears if Apple's stock dips below the magical 200 mark, all hell will break loose.
Here's how he describes yesterday's market action
One by one lesser lights in the market were taken out behind the proverbial barn and shot, although the greater lights... the Apples, the Goldmans, and now the Amazons et al held well compared to the rest of the market. We fear they too may be taken out and shot sooner rather than later, for the margin clerks are now sharpening their pencils and when they do they are merciless. As we like to say, and as we have said time and time again, “When they raid the house of ill repute, the good girls and the piano player too go to jail.”
We shall watch Apple with particular interest, for this has been the true leader of the market over the past many months. Should it falter, the rest will falter too, for when the field General is shot and killed, the men below him scatter chaotically. So long as $200 holds, all shall be well; but if $200 is given... and especially if $195 is given... we’ll fear the worst for Apple and for the market generally. Attention, as we like to say, must be paid.
By: The Money Game
Analyst Dennis Gartman touched on an important, yet brief point in his Gartman Letter this morning. He believes Apple (AAPL) has emerged as a new market leader, along with Amazon (AMZN) and Goldman Sachs (GS). He fears if Apple's stock dips below the magical 200 mark, all hell will break loose.
Here's how he describes yesterday's market action
One by one lesser lights in the market were taken out behind the proverbial barn and shot, although the greater lights... the Apples, the Goldmans, and now the Amazons et al held well compared to the rest of the market. We fear they too may be taken out and shot sooner rather than later, for the margin clerks are now sharpening their pencils and when they do they are merciless. As we like to say, and as we have said time and time again, “When they raid the house of ill repute, the good girls and the piano player too go to jail.”
We shall watch Apple with particular interest, for this has been the true leader of the market over the past many months. Should it falter, the rest will falter too, for when the field General is shot and killed, the men below him scatter chaotically. So long as $200 holds, all shall be well; but if $200 is given... and especially if $195 is given... we’ll fear the worst for Apple and for the market generally. Attention, as we like to say, must be paid.
By: The Money Game
Einhorn: Obama So Afraid Of Making 1937 Mistake He Will Destroy Country To Avoid It
Einhorn: Obama So Afraid Of Making 1937 Mistake He Will Destroy Country To Avoid It
David Einhorn made a great speech at Whitney Tilson's Value Investing Congress last week. We've embedded the whole thing here and below. We'll be running some excerpts this morning.
Here's a good one.
Any time someone suggests to the Obama administration that it's time to start thinking about pulling back on the stimulus, this is (approximately) the response:
Whatever we do, we're not going to make the mistake the government made in 1937, when they rolled back the stimulus too early.
Anyone who hears that without having a good grasp of the 1930s might conclude that the catastrophic decisions made in 1937 caused the Great Depression. In fact, they came near the end of the Great Depression, five years after the stock market bottomed and four years into a violent recovery. And they merely caused a mild return to recession that was probably inevitable anyway.
By Henry Blodget- The Money Game
David Einhorn made a great speech at Whitney Tilson's Value Investing Congress last week. We've embedded the whole thing here and below. We'll be running some excerpts this morning.
Here's a good one.
Any time someone suggests to the Obama administration that it's time to start thinking about pulling back on the stimulus, this is (approximately) the response:
Whatever we do, we're not going to make the mistake the government made in 1937, when they rolled back the stimulus too early.
Anyone who hears that without having a good grasp of the 1930s might conclude that the catastrophic decisions made in 1937 caused the Great Depression. In fact, they came near the end of the Great Depression, five years after the stock market bottomed and four years into a violent recovery. And they merely caused a mild return to recession that was probably inevitable anyway.
By Henry Blodget- The Money Game
The Twenty Companies That Wall St. Can Trust The Least
The Twenty Companies That Wall St. Can Trust The Least
Wall St. likes financial statements that give it deep insights into a company’s operations, especially its liabilities. It likes boards that make sure shareholders get as complete a picture as possible of a firm’s balance sheet and details of its P&L, cash-flow, and other critical financial measurements.
24/7 Wall St. asked Audit Integrity to put together a list of companies traded on US exchanges with market caps of more than $3 billion that do particularly poorly in the areas of corporate governance, detailed disclosure of high-risk events including M&A and restructurings, revenue and expense recognition, and asset and liability valuation.
Based on the Audit Integrity model, 24/7 created a list of the twenty companies that Wall St. can trust the least. Among the companies that the analysis flagged are Altria (NYSE:MO), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS), GE (NYSE:GE), Blackstone (NYSE:BX), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WMT), and Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW)
By 24/7 Wall Street
Wall St. likes financial statements that give it deep insights into a company’s operations, especially its liabilities. It likes boards that make sure shareholders get as complete a picture as possible of a firm’s balance sheet and details of its P&L, cash-flow, and other critical financial measurements.
24/7 Wall St. asked Audit Integrity to put together a list of companies traded on US exchanges with market caps of more than $3 billion that do particularly poorly in the areas of corporate governance, detailed disclosure of high-risk events including M&A and restructurings, revenue and expense recognition, and asset and liability valuation.
Based on the Audit Integrity model, 24/7 created a list of the twenty companies that Wall St. can trust the least. Among the companies that the analysis flagged are Altria (NYSE:MO), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS), GE (NYSE:GE), Blackstone (NYSE:BX), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WMT), and Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW)
By 24/7 Wall Street
Bill Gross: Bonds Will Get Slammed Once The Fed Stops Propping The Market
Bill Gross: Bonds Will Get Slammed Once The Fed Stops Propping The Market
Bill Gross is warning investors that as Federal Reserve buyback programs disappear, bonds are likely to correct.
While we're sure he remains a long-term bond bull (he sort of has to be, given his job), investors should give particular weight to his warning given his strong disincentive to be bearish.
By: The Business Insider- The Money Game
Bill Gross is warning investors that as Federal Reserve buyback programs disappear, bonds are likely to correct.
While we're sure he remains a long-term bond bull (he sort of has to be, given his job), investors should give particular weight to his warning given his strong disincentive to be bearish.
By: The Business Insider- The Money Game
Goldman: It's A False Bottom In Housing
Goldman: It's A False Bottom In Housing
More analysts are coming to the conclusion that any apparent bottom in the housing market is false, and that any rally is a head fake
By The Business Insider-The Money Game
More analysts are coming to the conclusion that any apparent bottom in the housing market is false, and that any rally is a head fake
By The Business Insider-The Money Game
Get Out of Bonds -- Fast!
Get Out of Bonds -- Fast!
The next big shoe to drop and giant bubble to pop is the US bond market. The explosive run up into December 2008 was an absolute Christmas present for bond bears willing to short the panic top. The 2008 fear-related spike in bonds was the equivalent to NASDAQ in 2000 or real estate in 2004. However, this explosive move up was primarily driven by global fear, where the other two bubbles were driven by greed.
By Minyanville
The next big shoe to drop and giant bubble to pop is the US bond market. The explosive run up into December 2008 was an absolute Christmas present for bond bears willing to short the panic top. The 2008 fear-related spike in bonds was the equivalent to NASDAQ in 2000 or real estate in 2004. However, this explosive move up was primarily driven by global fear, where the other two bubbles were driven by greed.
By Minyanville
Monday, October 26, 2009
Facebook's Self-Serve Ads Are Ridiculously Easy To Make
Facebook's Self-Serve Ads Are Ridiculously Easy To Make
Step by step instructions
By -The Business Insider
Step by step instructions
By -The Business Insider
How to profit from the new natural gas cycle
How to profit from the new natural gas cycle
Regardless of the exact limits of the natural gas price range, simply being aware of the changed fundamentals of these markets opens the potential for some serious profit making. Whether it is by buying the shares of natural gas companies when they align with prices at the low end of the range, and selling when they approach highs… or utilizing carefully structured futures and options to play the market -- natural gas has the potential to offer attentive investors a gift that keeps on giving
By The Daily Crux
Regardless of the exact limits of the natural gas price range, simply being aware of the changed fundamentals of these markets opens the potential for some serious profit making. Whether it is by buying the shares of natural gas companies when they align with prices at the low end of the range, and selling when they approach highs… or utilizing carefully structured futures and options to play the market -- natural gas has the potential to offer attentive investors a gift that keeps on giving
By The Daily Crux
The US Dollar Will Become Worthless-Marc Faber
The US Dollar Will Become Worthless-Marc Faber
The dollar will become worthless when people eventually realize the fiscal situation in the U.S. is a "disaster,"said Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report."It will go to a value of zero eventually, but not right now," Faber said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television. "Looking at Mr. Obama's administration, it should already be there. I think it will take about 10 years until people realize that the fiscal situation of the U.S. is a complete disaster.""In my opinion, about 50 percent of tax revenues will be used just to cover the interest payments on the government debt. That is unsustainable. Then you'll really be forced to print money."The best investments right now are foreign currencies, commodities and equities, Faber said. Stocks will continue to benefit from the actions of Federal Reserve Chairman, "As soon as the S&P drops to 900 or 800, he will print money again. He's a money printer. He's nothing else."Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.
By Marc Faber Blog
The dollar will become worthless when people eventually realize the fiscal situation in the U.S. is a "disaster,"said Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report."It will go to a value of zero eventually, but not right now," Faber said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television. "Looking at Mr. Obama's administration, it should already be there. I think it will take about 10 years until people realize that the fiscal situation of the U.S. is a complete disaster.""In my opinion, about 50 percent of tax revenues will be used just to cover the interest payments on the government debt. That is unsustainable. Then you'll really be forced to print money."The best investments right now are foreign currencies, commodities and equities, Faber said. Stocks will continue to benefit from the actions of Federal Reserve Chairman, "As soon as the S&P drops to 900 or 800, he will print money again. He's a money printer. He's nothing else."Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.
By Marc Faber Blog
Tech's Biggest Startup Success Stories Share Their Do's And Don'ts
Tech's Biggest Startup Success Stories Share Their Do's And Don'ts
Y Combinator, the Silicon Valley micro-seed capital and incubator firm, held its third annual Startup School at UC Berkeley this weekend.
Speakers such as Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, Twitter cofounders Biz Stone and Evan Williams of Twitter, and Zappos CEO Tony Hsieh showed up to share their triumphs and failures with several hundred memorized students, hackers, and aspiring entrepreneurs.
By The Business Insider
Y Combinator, the Silicon Valley micro-seed capital and incubator firm, held its third annual Startup School at UC Berkeley this weekend.
Speakers such as Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, Twitter cofounders Biz Stone and Evan Williams of Twitter, and Zappos CEO Tony Hsieh showed up to share their triumphs and failures with several hundred memorized students, hackers, and aspiring entrepreneurs.
By The Business Insider
George Soros Attacks Banker Bonuses
George Soros Attacks Banker Bonuses
Billionaire businessman and philanthropist George Soros is the latest public figure to criticize banks for paying big bonuses while taxpayers prop them up
By Business Week
Billionaire businessman and philanthropist George Soros is the latest public figure to criticize banks for paying big bonuses while taxpayers prop them up
By Business Week
Morgan Stanley: This Rally Almost Over
Morgan Stanley: This Rally Almost Over
According to Morgan Stanley euro analyst Teun Draaisma, we've got just a little bit more rally left, and then a long, low multi-year grind as moneys starts to get tight.
By MoneyNews.com
According to Morgan Stanley euro analyst Teun Draaisma, we've got just a little bit more rally left, and then a long, low multi-year grind as moneys starts to get tight.
By MoneyNews.com
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Mark Cuban- The DVR vs Internet Video
Mark Cuban- The DVR vs Internet Video
By the way this is one of the best blogs on the internet-Blogmaverick by Mark Cuban
The “conventional wisdom” of internet intellectuals is that its a foregone conclusion that the future of content delivery is via the internet. Furthermore, the same internet panel populaters seem to be of the mindset that traditional entertainment and content companies “just dont get it”. History has written that if it can be gotten for free, it should be gotten for free. It’s a given that the next re-make of Planet of the Apes is supposed to end with Taylor looking not at The Statue of Liberty, but an enormous Comcast or DIRECTV logo when he screams they “blew it all to hell”. That major content conglomerates like Viacom, Disney and the like, that depend on traditional TV models are doomed because they just dont understand the new world.
I agree.
Those big companies just don’t get it. Forget the Internet. For some reason they want to kill off the DVR. They think the DVR is the bane of their existence. That because consumers fast forward through commercials, DVRs must be dumbed down, limited in any and every way possible and even eliminated.
To this I reply, “Are you serious ?”
Do you not realize that the DVR is the one device that can save all things traditional and holy to your business and stock price ? That the DVR is what every internet based TV delivery device or service aims to be when they grow up ? That the more powerful and feature rich that you allow DVRs to become, the sooner your customers, the people that pay an average of what, $80 dollars a month to consume your content, will realize that all the capabilities that the internet pundits predict that the future of the internet will offer, are available today for the DVR ?
Let me ask a simple question, if everyone had a DVR that could record any and every series they liked, enabling them to watch the shows they missed immediately, why would they go to Hulu ever again ? Lunchtime at work you say ? I respond simply with “slingbox enabled DVR”. Let them stream the shows from their homes. Oh, and one more thing. When they do stream it from home to work, they pay for the bandwidth, not you.
Traditional media should be blasting the cable/telco/sat companies for not adding DVR features and dropping pricing fast enough. Not only should remote internet access to content be a given, but the ability to save shows at “internet quality” and original quality, side by side, should be as well. This would not only improve streaming, but also increase the number of shows that could be saved. I could go on for days with features that could and should be added to DVRs, but I will shortcut this by once again butchering a quote from Charlton Heston, this time from Soylent Green. “Its PCs. DVRs are made out of PCs.”. Which means that they can not only be upgraded with features, but if someone where smart and fully opened up Tru2way and added net connectivity, it could be a rich foundation for applications. Anyone got a Charlton Heston quote for the Iphone App store ? So what if Netflix does instant streaming to it. Go out and get the same rights and add them to your VOD Offering and create a movie on demand subscription service that you host on the internet or implement when you go IP. The full feature DVR is the killer of all boxes designed to integrate internet video into traditional TV viewing.
If you have gotten this far, you need to wipe away the tears. Yes, advertising dollars could take a hit. Sometimes the business world requires you to make a choice. Call me crazy, but a device that consumers love and further commits them to paying the cable/sat/telco distributors that PAY YOU BILLIONS EVERY YEAR, IS A GOOD THING ! A device that can pre empt whatever threat there might be from over the top video, is a good thing for you. A device that makes people watch MORE traditional TV is a good thing too, right ?
I know its tough recognizing that 40pct plus of DVR users want to and will skip through commercials. But do you think if you kill the golden goose and push people to the internet they will be more likely to watch your commercials ? No. They won’t.
Its time for you to finally understand the new world of technology and content. You have an amazing technology, the DVR, that has almost tripled its installed based to more than 30pct in just 2 years. DVR users watch 8 hours per month of time shifted TV, which by the way is more than total average consumption of 3 hours of internet video per month. Even kids 18 to 24 watch more video on their DVR than they do on the net ! Don’t you think its worth noting that the number of DVR users is growing faster than the number of video watching internet users ? The individual consumption of DVR video far exceeds internet video. More importantly, since most DVR users are cable/telco subscribers, they actually PAY YOU MONEY to do all the above.
Its time you come not to crush the DVR but to praise it.
BY Mark Cuban- Blog Maverick
By Mark Cuban -Blog Maverick
By the way this is one of the best blogs on the internet-Blogmaverick by Mark Cuban
The “conventional wisdom” of internet intellectuals is that its a foregone conclusion that the future of content delivery is via the internet. Furthermore, the same internet panel populaters seem to be of the mindset that traditional entertainment and content companies “just dont get it”. History has written that if it can be gotten for free, it should be gotten for free. It’s a given that the next re-make of Planet of the Apes is supposed to end with Taylor looking not at The Statue of Liberty, but an enormous Comcast or DIRECTV logo when he screams they “blew it all to hell”. That major content conglomerates like Viacom, Disney and the like, that depend on traditional TV models are doomed because they just dont understand the new world.
I agree.
Those big companies just don’t get it. Forget the Internet. For some reason they want to kill off the DVR. They think the DVR is the bane of their existence. That because consumers fast forward through commercials, DVRs must be dumbed down, limited in any and every way possible and even eliminated.
To this I reply, “Are you serious ?”
Do you not realize that the DVR is the one device that can save all things traditional and holy to your business and stock price ? That the DVR is what every internet based TV delivery device or service aims to be when they grow up ? That the more powerful and feature rich that you allow DVRs to become, the sooner your customers, the people that pay an average of what, $80 dollars a month to consume your content, will realize that all the capabilities that the internet pundits predict that the future of the internet will offer, are available today for the DVR ?
Let me ask a simple question, if everyone had a DVR that could record any and every series they liked, enabling them to watch the shows they missed immediately, why would they go to Hulu ever again ? Lunchtime at work you say ? I respond simply with “slingbox enabled DVR”. Let them stream the shows from their homes. Oh, and one more thing. When they do stream it from home to work, they pay for the bandwidth, not you.
Traditional media should be blasting the cable/telco/sat companies for not adding DVR features and dropping pricing fast enough. Not only should remote internet access to content be a given, but the ability to save shows at “internet quality” and original quality, side by side, should be as well. This would not only improve streaming, but also increase the number of shows that could be saved. I could go on for days with features that could and should be added to DVRs, but I will shortcut this by once again butchering a quote from Charlton Heston, this time from Soylent Green. “Its PCs. DVRs are made out of PCs.”. Which means that they can not only be upgraded with features, but if someone where smart and fully opened up Tru2way and added net connectivity, it could be a rich foundation for applications. Anyone got a Charlton Heston quote for the Iphone App store ? So what if Netflix does instant streaming to it. Go out and get the same rights and add them to your VOD Offering and create a movie on demand subscription service that you host on the internet or implement when you go IP. The full feature DVR is the killer of all boxes designed to integrate internet video into traditional TV viewing.
If you have gotten this far, you need to wipe away the tears. Yes, advertising dollars could take a hit. Sometimes the business world requires you to make a choice. Call me crazy, but a device that consumers love and further commits them to paying the cable/sat/telco distributors that PAY YOU BILLIONS EVERY YEAR, IS A GOOD THING ! A device that can pre empt whatever threat there might be from over the top video, is a good thing for you. A device that makes people watch MORE traditional TV is a good thing too, right ?
I know its tough recognizing that 40pct plus of DVR users want to and will skip through commercials. But do you think if you kill the golden goose and push people to the internet they will be more likely to watch your commercials ? No. They won’t.
Its time for you to finally understand the new world of technology and content. You have an amazing technology, the DVR, that has almost tripled its installed based to more than 30pct in just 2 years. DVR users watch 8 hours per month of time shifted TV, which by the way is more than total average consumption of 3 hours of internet video per month. Even kids 18 to 24 watch more video on their DVR than they do on the net ! Don’t you think its worth noting that the number of DVR users is growing faster than the number of video watching internet users ? The individual consumption of DVR video far exceeds internet video. More importantly, since most DVR users are cable/telco subscribers, they actually PAY YOU MONEY to do all the above.
Its time you come not to crush the DVR but to praise it.
BY Mark Cuban- Blog Maverick
By Mark Cuban -Blog Maverick
Friday, October 23, 2009
The Return of the Why-P.O.
The Return of the Why-P.O.
Why? Because the capital markets will support it, that’s why.
We’re starting to see something I had hoped would be further down the pike during this economic recovery cycle: The Return of the Why-P.O.
What in tarnation is a Why-P.O. you ask? It’s an IPO so pointless for investors to be involved with that you can only scratch your head after reading the prospectus and ask “Why?”.
By The Reformed Broker
Why? Because the capital markets will support it, that’s why.
We’re starting to see something I had hoped would be further down the pike during this economic recovery cycle: The Return of the Why-P.O.
What in tarnation is a Why-P.O. you ask? It’s an IPO so pointless for investors to be involved with that you can only scratch your head after reading the prospectus and ask “Why?”.
By The Reformed Broker
Odds Of $3 Gas By Year-End Grow
Odds Of $3 Gas By Year-End Grow
It has taken less than three months from oil to go from $65 to $81, a 25% increase. Gasoline prices have not moved up as fast but have risen to $2.50. That price could easily move to $3 by the end of the year.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) says it expects crude to move to $100 a barrel in 2010, and a number of factors could cause the timing of that increase to come sooner rather than later. At $100, oil would climb another 23% from its current price.
The most commonly mentioned reasons for rising oil prices are growing demand, particularly in China, and the failing dollar. The dollar recently broke the 1.5 euro level and a tendancy for investing in risky assets as the stock market rises becomes more tempting for investors as each day passes. An ongoing rise in equity prices should pull more cash into these markets.
By 24/7 Wall Street
It has taken less than three months from oil to go from $65 to $81, a 25% increase. Gasoline prices have not moved up as fast but have risen to $2.50. That price could easily move to $3 by the end of the year.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) says it expects crude to move to $100 a barrel in 2010, and a number of factors could cause the timing of that increase to come sooner rather than later. At $100, oil would climb another 23% from its current price.
The most commonly mentioned reasons for rising oil prices are growing demand, particularly in China, and the failing dollar. The dollar recently broke the 1.5 euro level and a tendancy for investing in risky assets as the stock market rises becomes more tempting for investors as each day passes. An ongoing rise in equity prices should pull more cash into these markets.
By 24/7 Wall Street
More Black Swans In Store For The US Economy
More Black Swans In Store For The US Economy
Central Banks and governments around the world have thrown everything they can muster at the financial crisis. And up until now, it appears as though they have succeeded. Equity markets are up 60%+ around the globe and investors are beginning to party like its 1999. But a look underneath the hood shows that shiny Cadillac might just be a clunker (don’t worry, the government will take out a loan so you can take out a loan to turn in your clunker for a new car you never needed to begin with). Unfortunately, as we’ve learned over the course of the Fed’s 20 year boom/bust experiment, sound economic growth cannot be built on the back of a printing press. This is most evident in three segments of the economy:
Housing
Jobs
Consumers
By The Pragmatic Capitalist
Central Banks and governments around the world have thrown everything they can muster at the financial crisis. And up until now, it appears as though they have succeeded. Equity markets are up 60%+ around the globe and investors are beginning to party like its 1999. But a look underneath the hood shows that shiny Cadillac might just be a clunker (don’t worry, the government will take out a loan so you can take out a loan to turn in your clunker for a new car you never needed to begin with). Unfortunately, as we’ve learned over the course of the Fed’s 20 year boom/bust experiment, sound economic growth cannot be built on the back of a printing press. This is most evident in three segments of the economy:
Housing
Jobs
Consumers
By The Pragmatic Capitalist
Can Apple Be a $300 Stock?
Can Apple Be a $300 Stock?
Yesterday, the market sold off fairly hard, but one stock that stayed in the green all day was Apple (AAPL). The chart above shows the recent stock action, accompanied by a huge volume spike, as well as the long uptrend. The gap higher on Tuesday was the reaction to the company's blowout earnings report. I covered the earnings conference call for TheStreet.com Monday night. Here is a copy of my comments
By Seeking Alpha
Yesterday, the market sold off fairly hard, but one stock that stayed in the green all day was Apple (AAPL). The chart above shows the recent stock action, accompanied by a huge volume spike, as well as the long uptrend. The gap higher on Tuesday was the reaction to the company's blowout earnings report. I covered the earnings conference call for TheStreet.com Monday night. Here is a copy of my comments
By Seeking Alpha
Thursday, October 22, 2009
US Could Lose “AAA” Rating–Moody’s
US Could Lose “AAA” Rating–Moody’s
Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) lead analyst covering US debt said that the Amercan goverment could lose its “AAA” rating if it cannot cut the deficit and budget gaps in the next three to four years.
By 24/7 Wall Street
Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) lead analyst covering US debt said that the Amercan goverment could lose its “AAA” rating if it cannot cut the deficit and budget gaps in the next three to four years.
By 24/7 Wall Street
John Meriwether Is Really Launching A Third Hedge Fund
John Meriwether Is Really Launching A Third Hedge Fund
There really is no way to destroy your reputation in this industry, so long as your failures are spectacular
Meriwether is the anti-Taleb. He bets on prices moving back to normal, and most of the time that strategy makes money
, but then it's bound to blow up. Taleb's whole philosophy is that betting normal is for suckers, so he loses money most of the time, and then occasionally will make spectacular amounts of it.
The craziest part is not that he's starting a new fund (why not?) but that investors will throw their money at him.
By The Business Insider-Clusterstock Joe Weisenthal
There really is no way to destroy your reputation in this industry, so long as your failures are spectacular
Meriwether is the anti-Taleb. He bets on prices moving back to normal, and most of the time that strategy makes money
, but then it's bound to blow up. Taleb's whole philosophy is that betting normal is for suckers, so he loses money most of the time, and then occasionally will make spectacular amounts of it.
The craziest part is not that he's starting a new fund (why not?) but that investors will throw their money at him.
By The Business Insider-Clusterstock Joe Weisenthal
Afghanistan drug trail spanning the worldStory Highlights
Afghanistan drug trail spanning the world
The drug is ravaging the young, poor and vulnerable in Afghanistan, and its proceeds are the lifeblood of the Taliban. It also is spreading on a drug trail that spans the world.
While Western governments have for years debated how to stop the lucrative drug trade in Afghanistan, the business has only grown. The U.N. report notes that for years, the counternarcotics strategies around the world have failed to have any real effect on addiction or drug trafficking. In some countries, heroin is 10 times cheaper now than it was 30 years ago.
By CNN.com
The drug is ravaging the young, poor and vulnerable in Afghanistan, and its proceeds are the lifeblood of the Taliban. It also is spreading on a drug trail that spans the world.
While Western governments have for years debated how to stop the lucrative drug trade in Afghanistan, the business has only grown. The U.N. report notes that for years, the counternarcotics strategies around the world have failed to have any real effect on addiction or drug trafficking. In some countries, heroin is 10 times cheaper now than it was 30 years ago.
By CNN.com
Goldman Wins Again
Goldman Wins Again
By putting compensation caps on some bailed-out firms, pay czar Kenneth Feinberg sent a message, writes Nomi Prins. But he also strengthened the hands of the rest, including Goldman Sachs.
By The Daily Beast
By putting compensation caps on some bailed-out firms, pay czar Kenneth Feinberg sent a message, writes Nomi Prins. But he also strengthened the hands of the rest, including Goldman Sachs.
By The Daily Beast
Lawsuit: Madoff's workplace was rife with cocaine, sex
Lawsuit: Madoff's workplace was rife with cocaine, sex
A new lawsuit alleges that convicted swindler Bernie Madoff financed a cocaine-fueled work environment and a "culture of sexual deviance," and he diverted money to his London, England, office when he believed federal authorities were closing in at home.
By CNN.com
A new lawsuit alleges that convicted swindler Bernie Madoff financed a cocaine-fueled work environment and a "culture of sexual deviance," and he diverted money to his London, England, office when he believed federal authorities were closing in at home.
By CNN.com
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
The SEC's Tough New Offensive on Insider Trading
The SEC's Tough New Offensive on Insider Trading
Insider-trading scandals have been a fact of market life since the Dutch were hawking East India Tea. And the high-stakes bust on Oct. 16 of Raj Rajaratnam, the billionaire founder of hedge fund Galleon Management, for allegedly trafficking in ill-gotten information includes the usual array of investment analysts, corporate executives, and clock-punching interlopers.
But the Securities & Exchange Commission's recent action against Galleon evinces a new offensive against the notoriously difficult-to-prosecute crime. Armed with informants, wiretaps, and intricate software tools, the federal agency—still smarting after missing the Bernard Madoff Ponzi scheme—is signaling a bolder stance on insider trading. "It would be wise for investment advisers and corporate executives to closely look at [the Galleon] case and consider what lessons can be learned and applied to their own operations," SEC enforcement chief Robert Khuzami said in a press conference.
\By Business Week
Insider-trading scandals have been a fact of market life since the Dutch were hawking East India Tea. And the high-stakes bust on Oct. 16 of Raj Rajaratnam, the billionaire founder of hedge fund Galleon Management, for allegedly trafficking in ill-gotten information includes the usual array of investment analysts, corporate executives, and clock-punching interlopers.
But the Securities & Exchange Commission's recent action against Galleon evinces a new offensive against the notoriously difficult-to-prosecute crime. Armed with informants, wiretaps, and intricate software tools, the federal agency—still smarting after missing the Bernard Madoff Ponzi scheme—is signaling a bolder stance on insider trading. "It would be wise for investment advisers and corporate executives to closely look at [the Galleon] case and consider what lessons can be learned and applied to their own operations," SEC enforcement chief Robert Khuzami said in a press conference.
\By Business Week
Mary Meeker's Awesome Internet Presentation From Web 2.0
Mary Meeker's Awesome Internet Presentation From Web 2.0
Morgan Stanley analyst Mary Meeker gives an excellent macro Internet presentation at Web 2.0 Summit each year.
This year, Mary focused on the economy and mobile Internet.
The entire presentation is embedded below (courtesy of Morgan Stanley). The section on Mobile starts on page 28.
We have also put together the key Mobile highlights with our commentary.
Check out the mobile highlights here >
By Henry Blodget The Business Insider
Morgan Stanley analyst Mary Meeker gives an excellent macro Internet presentation at Web 2.0 Summit each year.
This year, Mary focused on the economy and mobile Internet.
The entire presentation is embedded below (courtesy of Morgan Stanley). The section on Mobile starts on page 28.
We have also put together the key Mobile highlights with our commentary.
Check out the mobile highlights here >
By Henry Blodget The Business Insider
Famed market strategist: This is a new bull market
Famed market strategist: This is a new bull market
Jeff Saut has played the downturn and the upturn about as well as anyone. The Chief Strategist at Raymond James has been bullish since April and is unwavering in his bullishness despite the huge move in stocks. He sees the continued skepticism in the market as a primary driver of equity prices:The negative nabobs continue to call this a bear market "sucker's rally!" While it's true that markets can do anything, the real "suckers" have been the bears who didn't employ adaptive asset allocation and consequently have "sat" out the seven-month rally. Clearly, we disagree with the bears' assessment, having maintained the view that this is a new bull market since April.Read full article...
By The Daily Crux
Jeff Saut has played the downturn and the upturn about as well as anyone. The Chief Strategist at Raymond James has been bullish since April and is unwavering in his bullishness despite the huge move in stocks. He sees the continued skepticism in the market as a primary driver of equity prices:The negative nabobs continue to call this a bear market "sucker's rally!" While it's true that markets can do anything, the real "suckers" have been the bears who didn't employ adaptive asset allocation and consequently have "sat" out the seven-month rally. Clearly, we disagree with the bears' assessment, having maintained the view that this is a new bull market since April.Read full article...
By The Daily Crux
David Einhorn Increasingly Concerned About Dollar Crisis, Hoarding Gold
David Einhorn Increasingly Concerned About Dollar Crisis, Hoarding Gold
The head of renowned hedge fund Green Light Capital has some interesting thoughts on the markets and strategy going forward. He is increasingly concerned about a dollar crisis and has been hoarding gold and gold related assets.
By Seeking Alpha
The head of renowned hedge fund Green Light Capital has some interesting thoughts on the markets and strategy going forward. He is increasingly concerned about a dollar crisis and has been hoarding gold and gold related assets.
By Seeking Alpha
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Buffett Argues Wall St. Pay Needs ‘Downside
Buffett Argues Wall St. Pay Needs ‘Downside
The billionaire Warren E. Buffett, who is paid $100,000 a year for running Berkshire Hathaway, contends that Wall Street compensation needs a “downside” when profits deteriorate because of reckless investments.
By New York Times Dealbook
The billionaire Warren E. Buffett, who is paid $100,000 a year for running Berkshire Hathaway, contends that Wall Street compensation needs a “downside” when profits deteriorate because of reckless investments.
By New York Times Dealbook
Commercial Real Estate and REITs: Ticking Time Bomb?
Commercial Real Estate and REITs: Ticking Time Bomb?
There is, however, another problem lurking behind the scenes which is just beginning what we should all hope is a very short “15 minutes of fame” but could turn out to be a mini-series instead and that is commercial real-estate.
“Banks will be slow to recognize the severity of the loss – just as they were in residential” was how it was worded in a presentation given by the Fed last month and more recently Bill Dudley, New York Fed President, was quoted as saying: “More pain likely lies ahead for this sector and for those banks with heavy commercial real estate exposures.”
The WSJ did some analysis work of its own on 800 banks that reported having more than half of their loans tied up in commercial real estate and found that these institutions reserved $0.38 on the dollar against bad loans vs. the $1.58 for every $1.00 in bad loans set aside since January of 2007.
Patrick Phillips, the new CEO of the Urban Land Institute, a real-estate industry group, describes the methodology currently used by the banks as “an extend-and-pretend philosophy”. Matthew Anderson, a partner at Foresight Analytics said: “It’s like taping paper over a hole in the wall.” Not an encouraging quote from either gentleman.
By Seeking Alpha
There is, however, another problem lurking behind the scenes which is just beginning what we should all hope is a very short “15 minutes of fame” but could turn out to be a mini-series instead and that is commercial real-estate.
“Banks will be slow to recognize the severity of the loss – just as they were in residential” was how it was worded in a presentation given by the Fed last month and more recently Bill Dudley, New York Fed President, was quoted as saying: “More pain likely lies ahead for this sector and for those banks with heavy commercial real estate exposures.”
The WSJ did some analysis work of its own on 800 banks that reported having more than half of their loans tied up in commercial real estate and found that these institutions reserved $0.38 on the dollar against bad loans vs. the $1.58 for every $1.00 in bad loans set aside since January of 2007.
Patrick Phillips, the new CEO of the Urban Land Institute, a real-estate industry group, describes the methodology currently used by the banks as “an extend-and-pretend philosophy”. Matthew Anderson, a partner at Foresight Analytics said: “It’s like taping paper over a hole in the wall.” Not an encouraging quote from either gentleman.
By Seeking Alpha
Monday, October 19, 2009
David Einhorn: The Lesson Of Lehman Is That There Shouldn't Have Been A Lehman
David Einhorn: The Lesson Of Lehman Is That There Shouldn't Have Been A Lehman
Hedge-fund manager
David Einhorn delivered a colorful speech at the Value Investing Congress in New York City today. He said that the government should break up JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup.
“The lesson of Lehman should not be that the government should have prevented its failure,” Einhorn said. “The lesson of Lehman should be that Lehman should not have existed at a scale that allowed it to jeopardize the financial system.”
Of course, that's a point that we've been making for quite a long time.
Here's the whole speech
By The Business Insider- Clusterstock
Hedge-fund manager
David Einhorn delivered a colorful speech at the Value Investing Congress in New York City today. He said that the government should break up JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup.
“The lesson of Lehman should not be that the government should have prevented its failure,” Einhorn said. “The lesson of Lehman should be that Lehman should not have existed at a scale that allowed it to jeopardize the financial system.”
Of course, that's a point that we've been making for quite a long time.
Here's the whole speech
By The Business Insider- Clusterstock
Star manager Hussman: Stocks are at a historic overbought extreme
Star manager Hussman: Stocks are at a historic overbought extreme
John Hussman, the well-known manager of Hussman Funds, is speaking out today with an interesting take on the market.Hussman says stocks are overvalued, but aren't at the all-time extremes that mean a correction is coming. However, he says he is unable to "find a single historical instance where stocks were more overbought on the combination of short- and intermediate-term measures" than they are today.He says the only date that even comes close is November 28, 1980, which marked the top of the "furious advance in the S&P 500 driven by enthusiasm over 'less bad' economic news, though with little proven economic strength. It was the last day of the 1980 bull market."Read full article...
By The Daily Crux
John Hussman, the well-known manager of Hussman Funds, is speaking out today with an interesting take on the market.Hussman says stocks are overvalued, but aren't at the all-time extremes that mean a correction is coming. However, he says he is unable to "find a single historical instance where stocks were more overbought on the combination of short- and intermediate-term measures" than they are today.He says the only date that even comes close is November 28, 1980, which marked the top of the "furious advance in the S&P 500 driven by enthusiasm over 'less bad' economic news, though with little proven economic strength. It was the last day of the 1980 bull market."Read full article...
By The Daily Crux
The U.S.'s Bubble Addiction: Is Housing Bubble #2 About to Take Off?
The U.S.'s Bubble Addiction: Is Housing Bubble #2 About to Take Off?
The 800lb gorilla in the room when it comes to housing's future is interest rates moving forward. The risks of rates rising are extremely high IMO. The main threat of higher rates of course is inflation. We are already seeing increasing prices as a result of a falling dollar. Oil has touched $77 in the past couple days. Gold remains firmly over the $1000 level. These are some of the "unintended consequences" when you print money in an attempt to keep the USA's debt bubble inflated.The Fed eventually will be forced to address the falling dollar. What's the easiest way to strengthen the dollar? Why raise rates of course. Higher interest rates down the road could very well trigger another housing collapse.
By Seeking Alpha
The 800lb gorilla in the room when it comes to housing's future is interest rates moving forward. The risks of rates rising are extremely high IMO. The main threat of higher rates of course is inflation. We are already seeing increasing prices as a result of a falling dollar. Oil has touched $77 in the past couple days. Gold remains firmly over the $1000 level. These are some of the "unintended consequences" when you print money in an attempt to keep the USA's debt bubble inflated.The Fed eventually will be forced to address the falling dollar. What's the easiest way to strengthen the dollar? Why raise rates of course. Higher interest rates down the road could very well trigger another housing collapse.
By Seeking Alpha
The Taliban's Heroin Ploy
The Taliban's Heroin Ploy
As the U.S. postpones a decision on Afghanistan, Gerald Posner reports on a new secret weapon in the arsenal of the Taliban and Al Qaeda: getting the Army addicted to their cheap heroinBy The Daily Beast
As the U.S. postpones a decision on Afghanistan, Gerald Posner reports on a new secret weapon in the arsenal of the Taliban and Al Qaeda: getting the Army addicted to their cheap heroinBy The Daily Beast
Notes From The Great Investors "Best Ideas" Symposium
Notes From The Great Investors "Best Ideas" Symposium
TRADES: EINHORN, ACKMAN, PRICE, BARROW, HART & GABELLI
Einhorn
Obama’s September speech on financial reform had many good points….he should have relayed them to his policy team.
Making these institutions (banks) and products “safer” is like making safer asbestos.
(extremely negative on existence of the banks in their current form, government’s weakness to banking lobby, the pervasive moral hazard our policies have created, and the institutionalization of “too big to fail”.)
Banks are earning oligopolistic profits on mortgage spreads.
Romer and others in the administration seem intent on maintaining the fiscal stimulus and cite 1937 as their basis…. But GDP created by fiscal stimulus is artificial.
Deficit accounting is on a cash basis, if done on a future basis our deficit is in the ~5 trillion range and future obligations are $60 trillion (already committed).
US fiscal scenario mirrors countries that have defaulted on sovereign debt (citing data from American Enterprise Institute).
Japan is well on its way to hyperinflation/default.
Rating agencies continue to lag crisis and they don’t rate sovereign debt any better than they do corporate.
How to manage risk:
Long gold, gold related. Does well when monetary policy is poor/vice versa.
Long dated int rate options US/JAP. Prefer these v. short bonds; limits loss/creates leverage.
Mark L. Hart (partial notes)
China has not had growth in actual wealth to match GDP.
Capital flows into China: trade; foreign investment; net speculation…all leads to dilution, further printing of RMB
Endless cycle of printing RMB and buying foreign treasuries etc; gives appearance of constantly growing foreign reserves.
To play as individual: Short Chinese ADR ‘s with RMB denominated assets.
Gabelli
Long idea: NFG
Own Seneca, 4th largest acreage holder in Marcellus shale.
4.4b enterprise value.
PMV ex-Marcellus = $42
James Barrow
Don’t buy fat CEO’s, those with Napoleon complex, or high pay v. the industry.
Bubble Concerns: Speculation in industrial raw materials. Asia Bond Inflows
3 Stocks he likes: Cooper Industries (14x dep earnings, 3% yield, infrastructure play); Sysco (4% y, good balance sheet, recovery play); Conoco (Nat gas play, killed by its refining biz, multiple <>
Michael Price
Blue chips (KFT, DIS, XRX, BHI) are strategically buying and paying 30-50% premiums, thinks this trend will continue, $ is cheap.
Ride longs even those a bit ahead of themselves from a valuation perspective (eg. EBAY)
Looks for industries that have been battered, layoffs, etc.
TV, Newspapers - content is still rich but the medium is the question (paper v. Kindle). Doesn’t know how this will play out.
Long WPO due to the Kaplan ownership, the paper itself bleeds.
Would buy NYT but not at current levels.
Also likes Smithfield Foods (SFD) (13b revs, hog and corn prices becoming more favorable, 2 board members left when they sold stock to pay down debt.)
Short VNO (smart guys but overvalued at present levels (~$62), the company sold stock at $47, 40% above NAV)
Bill Ackman
Entire presentation (with slides) was on shorting Realty Income Corp (letter O).
With disclaimer that he could be wrong, literally said it cannot go up.
Operate triple net leases.
(Pictures of select properties) all complete dumps. Typically “specialty use”, Buffet’s, local video stores, etc.
Will not disclose ID of tenants (had several excerpts of analyst calls, when a tenant had been determined, the company declined to comment).
Entire purpose is to “grow monthly dividend”. Reiterate several times, add thousandth of a penny monthly.
Pays out all cash flow to sustain the dividend.
If valued at 9.5% cap rate (generous) would fall by half.
Tenants that are identifiable are mostly junk rated; Ryan’s Buffet’s, Rite Aid’s; some B’s.
Every time stock reaches 25-26, the company sells.
Executives own less than 1%, haven’t bot any in 6 years.
Vesting program accelerates with age; never seen such a thing. Immediate vesting at 60. (CEO is 56).
Says is borrowable.
Positive caveats: No debt maturity til 2013, 350mm revolver but if forced to mark to market they would lose access.
By The Business Insider- Clusterstock
TRADES: EINHORN, ACKMAN, PRICE, BARROW, HART & GABELLI
Einhorn
Obama’s September speech on financial reform had many good points….he should have relayed them to his policy team.
Making these institutions (banks) and products “safer” is like making safer asbestos.
(extremely negative on existence of the banks in their current form, government’s weakness to banking lobby, the pervasive moral hazard our policies have created, and the institutionalization of “too big to fail”.)
Banks are earning oligopolistic profits on mortgage spreads.
Romer and others in the administration seem intent on maintaining the fiscal stimulus and cite 1937 as their basis…. But GDP created by fiscal stimulus is artificial.
Deficit accounting is on a cash basis, if done on a future basis our deficit is in the ~5 trillion range and future obligations are $60 trillion (already committed).
US fiscal scenario mirrors countries that have defaulted on sovereign debt (citing data from American Enterprise Institute).
Japan is well on its way to hyperinflation/default.
Rating agencies continue to lag crisis and they don’t rate sovereign debt any better than they do corporate.
How to manage risk:
Long gold, gold related. Does well when monetary policy is poor/vice versa.
Long dated int rate options US/JAP. Prefer these v. short bonds; limits loss/creates leverage.
Mark L. Hart (partial notes)
China has not had growth in actual wealth to match GDP.
Capital flows into China: trade; foreign investment; net speculation…all leads to dilution, further printing of RMB
Endless cycle of printing RMB and buying foreign treasuries etc; gives appearance of constantly growing foreign reserves.
To play as individual: Short Chinese ADR ‘s with RMB denominated assets.
Gabelli
Long idea: NFG
Own Seneca, 4th largest acreage holder in Marcellus shale.
4.4b enterprise value.
PMV ex-Marcellus = $42
James Barrow
Don’t buy fat CEO’s, those with Napoleon complex, or high pay v. the industry.
Bubble Concerns: Speculation in industrial raw materials. Asia Bond Inflows
3 Stocks he likes: Cooper Industries (14x dep earnings, 3% yield, infrastructure play); Sysco (4% y, good balance sheet, recovery play); Conoco (Nat gas play, killed by its refining biz, multiple <>
Michael Price
Blue chips (KFT, DIS, XRX, BHI) are strategically buying and paying 30-50% premiums, thinks this trend will continue, $ is cheap.
Ride longs even those a bit ahead of themselves from a valuation perspective (eg. EBAY)
Looks for industries that have been battered, layoffs, etc.
TV, Newspapers - content is still rich but the medium is the question (paper v. Kindle). Doesn’t know how this will play out.
Long WPO due to the Kaplan ownership, the paper itself bleeds.
Would buy NYT but not at current levels.
Also likes Smithfield Foods (SFD) (13b revs, hog and corn prices becoming more favorable, 2 board members left when they sold stock to pay down debt.)
Short VNO (smart guys but overvalued at present levels (~$62), the company sold stock at $47, 40% above NAV)
Bill Ackman
Entire presentation (with slides) was on shorting Realty Income Corp (letter O).
With disclaimer that he could be wrong, literally said it cannot go up.
Operate triple net leases.
(Pictures of select properties) all complete dumps. Typically “specialty use”, Buffet’s, local video stores, etc.
Will not disclose ID of tenants (had several excerpts of analyst calls, when a tenant had been determined, the company declined to comment).
Entire purpose is to “grow monthly dividend”. Reiterate several times, add thousandth of a penny monthly.
Pays out all cash flow to sustain the dividend.
If valued at 9.5% cap rate (generous) would fall by half.
Tenants that are identifiable are mostly junk rated; Ryan’s Buffet’s, Rite Aid’s; some B’s.
Every time stock reaches 25-26, the company sells.
Executives own less than 1%, haven’t bot any in 6 years.
Vesting program accelerates with age; never seen such a thing. Immediate vesting at 60. (CEO is 56).
Says is borrowable.
Positive caveats: No debt maturity til 2013, 350mm revolver but if forced to mark to market they would lose access.
By The Business Insider- Clusterstock
How Citi's Andrew Hall Made $100 Million Last Year
How Citi's Andrew Hall Made $100 Million Last Year
The way to make $100 million dollars on Wall Street, so the old joke goes, is to start with $200 million
Or you could trade oil.
By Time
The way to make $100 million dollars on Wall Street, so the old joke goes, is to start with $200 million
Or you could trade oil.
By Time
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Friday’s insider-trading charges against the founder of Galleon could be the tip of the iceberg
Friday’s insider-trading charges against the founder of Galleon could be the tip of the iceberg
Friday’s insider-trading charges against the founder of Galleon could be the tip of the iceberg, writes Allan Dodds Frank. Other hedge funds and the McKinsey consulting firm face scrutiny.
The case brought against the founder of Galleon Management and its technology hedge funds Friday, alleging more than $20 million in illegal profits from insider trading, is more than a shot across the bow of a company named for a ship favored by pirates.
By The Daily Beast
Friday’s insider-trading charges against the founder of Galleon could be the tip of the iceberg, writes Allan Dodds Frank. Other hedge funds and the McKinsey consulting firm face scrutiny.
The case brought against the founder of Galleon Management and its technology hedge funds Friday, alleging more than $20 million in illegal profits from insider trading, is more than a shot across the bow of a company named for a ship favored by pirates.
By The Daily Beast
How Goldman Sachs Made $3 Billion 12 Months After We Bailed Their Lucky Asses Out
How Goldman Sachs Made $3 Billion 12 Months After We Bailed Their Lucky Asses Out
How did Goldman, Sachs & Co. -- saved a year ago by the US taxpayer -- magically make $3 billion in 3 months a year later?
This as the US dollar collapses, unemployment soars and foreclosures hit a record?
By Dylan Radigan- The Business Insider Clusterstock
How did Goldman, Sachs & Co. -- saved a year ago by the US taxpayer -- magically make $3 billion in 3 months a year later?
This as the US dollar collapses, unemployment soars and foreclosures hit a record?
By Dylan Radigan- The Business Insider Clusterstock
How Galleon Got (and Lost) Its Edge
How Galleon Got (and Lost) Its Edge
And the truth is the vast majority of hedge funds are rather ordinary. If the majority of hedge funds managers were so crafty, not so many funds would have gone bust last year–or lost bundles of money for their wealthy investors.
The true standouts in the industry are a real minority. Anyone can put together an offering statement, call themselves a hedge fund manager and go out and raise money. That’s one reason why wealthy people and pension funds who throw money blindly at hedge funds without doing adequate due diligence are being plain foolish.
By Seeking Alpha
And the truth is the vast majority of hedge funds are rather ordinary. If the majority of hedge funds managers were so crafty, not so many funds would have gone bust last year–or lost bundles of money for their wealthy investors.
The true standouts in the industry are a real minority. Anyone can put together an offering statement, call themselves a hedge fund manager and go out and raise money. That’s one reason why wealthy people and pension funds who throw money blindly at hedge funds without doing adequate due diligence are being plain foolish.
By Seeking Alpha
Friday, October 16, 2009
How The Government Caused The Mortgage Crisis
How The Government Caused The Mortgage Crisis
It wasn't greed that caused the mortgage mess. In large part, the mess was the product of government policies designed to increase homehownership among the poor and ethnic minorities.
Today Peter Wallison points out how Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA created a demand for bad mortgages that encouraged mortgage brokers to generate millions of them.
By The Business Insider-Clusterstock
It wasn't greed that caused the mortgage mess. In large part, the mess was the product of government policies designed to increase homehownership among the poor and ethnic minorities.
Today Peter Wallison points out how Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA created a demand for bad mortgages that encouraged mortgage brokers to generate millions of them.
By The Business Insider-Clusterstock
Harrod's Now Selling Gold Bars In-Store-Sign of a Market Top?
Harrod's Now Selling Gold Bars In-Store-Sign of a Market Top?
The Knightsbridge department store yesterday began selling bars of pure Swiss gold bullion as part of a range that is being displayed in a miniature vault on the lower ground floor
By The Business Insider- The Money Game
The Knightsbridge department store yesterday began selling bars of pure Swiss gold bullion as part of a range that is being displayed in a miniature vault on the lower ground floor
By The Business Insider- The Money Game
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Carl Icahn: Opportunity To Short Real Estate
Carl Icahn: Opportunity To Short Real Estate
Legendary 'corporate raider' and hedge fund manager Carl Icahn recently sat down and divulged his thoughts on the current markets. He basically said that the stock market is 'schizophrenic,' and could swing in either direction in a major way. However, he feels that there is a risk of a double-dip recession and that people could really get burned should this occur.Specifically, Icahn sees real estate as a prime short candidate, citing an overhang in the office and mall sectors. He spoke about the exchange traded fund (ETF) of IYR, the iShares US Real Estate Index, and wondered why anyone would want to sit and collect a measly 4.5-5% dividend for all the inherent risk it carries with all of that commercial property. He is worried about the underlying REITs being able to liquidate the value of their buildings should things get really bad. He goes on to say, "I think there's overcapacity in the office market and in shopping centers because you have a secular change in the way retailers are behaving and the way consumers are behaving." For another hedge fund manager's take on some of the real estate market, check out Bill Ackman's latest short position.
By Market Folly
Legendary 'corporate raider' and hedge fund manager Carl Icahn recently sat down and divulged his thoughts on the current markets. He basically said that the stock market is 'schizophrenic,' and could swing in either direction in a major way. However, he feels that there is a risk of a double-dip recession and that people could really get burned should this occur.Specifically, Icahn sees real estate as a prime short candidate, citing an overhang in the office and mall sectors. He spoke about the exchange traded fund (ETF) of IYR, the iShares US Real Estate Index, and wondered why anyone would want to sit and collect a measly 4.5-5% dividend for all the inherent risk it carries with all of that commercial property. He is worried about the underlying REITs being able to liquidate the value of their buildings should things get really bad. He goes on to say, "I think there's overcapacity in the office market and in shopping centers because you have a secular change in the way retailers are behaving and the way consumers are behaving." For another hedge fund manager's take on some of the real estate market, check out Bill Ackman's latest short position.
By Market Folly
Goldman Strikes Gold Again
Goldman Strikes Gold Again
This morning Goldman Sachs posted near-record trading profits and bonuses. But behind the giddy numbers, Nomi Prins argues, are signs that the bank hasn't learned any lessons from the downturn
By: The Daily Beast
This morning Goldman Sachs posted near-record trading profits and bonuses. But behind the giddy numbers, Nomi Prins argues, are signs that the bank hasn't learned any lessons from the downturn
By: The Daily Beast
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
50 Free Ivy-League Lectures on the Economy
50 Free Ivy-League Lectures on the Economy
The economy has taken central stage in world news for the past few years due to rapidly failing markets the world over. Even with so much attention focused on economic issues if you’re not familiar with the field, or simply want a more in-depth look at things, it can be hard to follow just what’s going on. These lectures, given by scholars from some of the most prestigious educational institutions in the United States and around the world can help give you that foundation of knowledge and help you better understand the financial crisis that’s been building over the past few years.
By Onlineclasses.org
The economy has taken central stage in world news for the past few years due to rapidly failing markets the world over. Even with so much attention focused on economic issues if you’re not familiar with the field, or simply want a more in-depth look at things, it can be hard to follow just what’s going on. These lectures, given by scholars from some of the most prestigious educational institutions in the United States and around the world can help give you that foundation of knowledge and help you better understand the financial crisis that’s been building over the past few years.
By Onlineclasses.org
The Next Financial Crisis
The Next Financial Crisis
To many observers, the Federal Reserve has never looked more heroic than it does right now. This past winter, America’s financial system faced the prospect of utter ruin. And, while the economy has suffered plenty in 2009, the worst did not come to pass. The banking system that lends to our employers, thereby allowing our economy to function, never did collapse. Now, many of the accolades for averting catastrophe are going to the Fed. President Obama himself ratified this analysis last week when he renominated Fed chairman Ben Bernanke for a second term. Bernanke, the president told reporters, had marshaled “his background, his temperament, his courage, and his creativity” to help prevent a second Great Depression.
What these words of presidential praise obscured was that the Fed may well have mitigated our current crisis by sowing the seeds for the next one. All modern economies need a financial system that can connect people who want to save with those who have good investment projects. This is essentially what banks do. But, unfortunately, this process often goes wrong. And that is precisely what is happening now. Our banks have gotten into the habit of needing to be rescued through repeated bailouts. During this crisis, Bernanke--while saving the financial system in the short term--has done nothing to break this long-term pattern; worse, he exacerbated it. As a result, unless real reform happens soon, we face the prospect of another bubble-bust-bailout cycle that will be even more dangerous than the one we’ve just been through.
By The New Republic
To many observers, the Federal Reserve has never looked more heroic than it does right now. This past winter, America’s financial system faced the prospect of utter ruin. And, while the economy has suffered plenty in 2009, the worst did not come to pass. The banking system that lends to our employers, thereby allowing our economy to function, never did collapse. Now, many of the accolades for averting catastrophe are going to the Fed. President Obama himself ratified this analysis last week when he renominated Fed chairman Ben Bernanke for a second term. Bernanke, the president told reporters, had marshaled “his background, his temperament, his courage, and his creativity” to help prevent a second Great Depression.
What these words of presidential praise obscured was that the Fed may well have mitigated our current crisis by sowing the seeds for the next one. All modern economies need a financial system that can connect people who want to save with those who have good investment projects. This is essentially what banks do. But, unfortunately, this process often goes wrong. And that is precisely what is happening now. Our banks have gotten into the habit of needing to be rescued through repeated bailouts. During this crisis, Bernanke--while saving the financial system in the short term--has done nothing to break this long-term pattern; worse, he exacerbated it. As a result, unless real reform happens soon, we face the prospect of another bubble-bust-bailout cycle that will be even more dangerous than the one we’ve just been through.
By The New Republic
What Hedge Funds Are Buying and Selling Now
What Hedge Funds Are Buying and Selling Now
Embedded below is an interesting report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch regarding hedge fund position adjustments and performance for the prior month. The report touches on the fact that many funds have been buying S&P and NDX futures and have covered shorts in the Russell 2000. They also note that many funds are in the now crowded gold trade while some also bought platinum. Other moves in precious metals include selling silver and adding to shorts in copper. On the energy front, hedge funds were selling crude oil and reducing longs in heating oil. In the forex markets, hedge funds have been steadily pressing their short on the US Dollar and the market seems to have held on to a crowded long Japanese Yen position.The report also delves into interest rate trades which was of particular interest to us given the large amount of funds we've tracked that have positions on in this regard. The report notes that there are very deep short positions in the 10 Year Treasuries & 30 Year Treasuries but they were starting to modestly cover. They also apparently reduced some of their long 2 Year Treasury positions. These latest moves seem to indicate that hedge funds as a whole are scaling back a bit from the curve steepener trade. You'll remember that we've noted hedge fund legend Julian Robertson has put on a curve cap play which bets on rising interest rates on the long-term bonds. On the other side of this argument, we've also seen bond connoisseur Bill Gross of PIMCO wager on deflation by buying long-term treasuries recently. This debate will surely wage on throughout the end of this year and well into next year, so we'll continue to track what side of the trade prominent hedge funds are taking.
By Seeking Alpha
Embedded below is an interesting report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch regarding hedge fund position adjustments and performance for the prior month. The report touches on the fact that many funds have been buying S&P and NDX futures and have covered shorts in the Russell 2000. They also note that many funds are in the now crowded gold trade while some also bought platinum. Other moves in precious metals include selling silver and adding to shorts in copper. On the energy front, hedge funds were selling crude oil and reducing longs in heating oil. In the forex markets, hedge funds have been steadily pressing their short on the US Dollar and the market seems to have held on to a crowded long Japanese Yen position.The report also delves into interest rate trades which was of particular interest to us given the large amount of funds we've tracked that have positions on in this regard. The report notes that there are very deep short positions in the 10 Year Treasuries & 30 Year Treasuries but they were starting to modestly cover. They also apparently reduced some of their long 2 Year Treasury positions. These latest moves seem to indicate that hedge funds as a whole are scaling back a bit from the curve steepener trade. You'll remember that we've noted hedge fund legend Julian Robertson has put on a curve cap play which bets on rising interest rates on the long-term bonds. On the other side of this argument, we've also seen bond connoisseur Bill Gross of PIMCO wager on deflation by buying long-term treasuries recently. This debate will surely wage on throughout the end of this year and well into next year, so we'll continue to track what side of the trade prominent hedge funds are taking.
By Seeking Alpha
Paulson and Faber: Similar Macro Outlooks
Paulson and Faber: Similar Macro Outlooks
We’re starting a regular new feature at TPC in which we’ll summarize some of the most recent macro and micro outlooks from so-called investment gurus. This week’s edition will start with two investors who have handled the crisis (and recovery) remarkably well: John Paulson and Marc Faber. Both have similar macro outlooks
By Seeking Alpha
We’re starting a regular new feature at TPC in which we’ll summarize some of the most recent macro and micro outlooks from so-called investment gurus. This week’s edition will start with two investors who have handled the crisis (and recovery) remarkably well: John Paulson and Marc Faber. Both have similar macro outlooks
By Seeking Alpha
Commercial Real Estate Depression Means Major Hotel Bargains
Commercial Real Estate Depression Means Major Hotel Bargains
Depression Pricing As Empty Hotels Slash Rates
The recent era of easy lending was not confined to residential real estate. Commercial real estate lending is the next big worry for a banking industry already beset by an avalanche of non performing loans. The banking industry has $1.8 trillion dollars of commercial real estate loans and many analysts believe that banks have reserved for only a small fraction of current and future losses. Recent examples of losses on commercial hotel loans in major travel destinations such as Hawaii and Las Vegas indicate the severity of the problem.
By Seeking Alpha
Depression Pricing As Empty Hotels Slash Rates
The recent era of easy lending was not confined to residential real estate. Commercial real estate lending is the next big worry for a banking industry already beset by an avalanche of non performing loans. The banking industry has $1.8 trillion dollars of commercial real estate loans and many analysts believe that banks have reserved for only a small fraction of current and future losses. Recent examples of losses on commercial hotel loans in major travel destinations such as Hawaii and Las Vegas indicate the severity of the problem.
By Seeking Alpha
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Jim Rogers on the Next 10 Years
Jim Rogers on the Next 10 Years
I’m moving to China … possibly to live in a bunker. At least that was my inclination after listening to a presentation by Jim Rogers yesterday.
Now don’t get me wrong – Mr. Commodities wasn’t all doom and gloom. In fact, his talk was both informative and highly entertaining. But Rogers doesn’t sugarcoat things – he’s very matter-of-fact about his concerns and projections for the future. And most of them don’t bode well for the U.S.
I’ll be posting an interview with Jim Rogers on the site in the coming week, but for now, I just wanted to offer some highlights from his speech at ETF Securities' mini-conference and the Q&A that followed.
1. The 21st century belongs to China
By Lew Rockwell.com
I’m moving to China … possibly to live in a bunker. At least that was my inclination after listening to a presentation by Jim Rogers yesterday.
Now don’t get me wrong – Mr. Commodities wasn’t all doom and gloom. In fact, his talk was both informative and highly entertaining. But Rogers doesn’t sugarcoat things – he’s very matter-of-fact about his concerns and projections for the future. And most of them don’t bode well for the U.S.
I’ll be posting an interview with Jim Rogers on the site in the coming week, but for now, I just wanted to offer some highlights from his speech at ETF Securities' mini-conference and the Q&A that followed.
1. The 21st century belongs to China
By Lew Rockwell.com
The Fed Tried To Get Goldman To Buy Wachovia Then Killed The Deal
The Fed Tried To Get Goldman To Buy Wachovia Then Killed The Deal
You really should go read Horowitz's entire article, which goes into detail about the all night negotiations with Citi and Wells that were held in the Park Avenue "M&A dorm" of the law firm Sullivan & Cromwell and how Bair and Steel broke the news to Vikram Pandit that Citi wasn't going to get Wachovia in a 2 a.m. phone call.
By: The Business Insider-Clusterstock
You really should go read Horowitz's entire article, which goes into detail about the all night negotiations with Citi and Wells that were held in the Park Avenue "M&A dorm" of the law firm Sullivan & Cromwell and how Bair and Steel broke the news to Vikram Pandit that Citi wasn't going to get Wachovia in a 2 a.m. phone call.
By: The Business Insider-Clusterstock
Why a second Great Depression is still possible
Why a second Great Depression is still possible
Thomas Palley, former chief economist of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, begs to differ.Palley says we're just beginning the second phase of "deleveraging," and there's a very real possibility of entering a downward economic spiral.He compares the economy to a car, where borrowing is like stepping on the gas pedal. The first phase of deleveraging is when borrowing slows and stops, which is like taking a foot off the gas. The car stops accelerating and begins to slow down. This is what we experienced in last year's financial crisis.He says the next phase is where households begin to actively pay down debt and increase savings, which is like slamming a foot on the brake.
By The Daily Crux
Thomas Palley, former chief economist of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, begs to differ.Palley says we're just beginning the second phase of "deleveraging," and there's a very real possibility of entering a downward economic spiral.He compares the economy to a car, where borrowing is like stepping on the gas pedal. The first phase of deleveraging is when borrowing slows and stops, which is like taking a foot off the gas. The car stops accelerating and begins to slow down. This is what we experienced in last year's financial crisis.He says the next phase is where households begin to actively pay down debt and increase savings, which is like slamming a foot on the brake.
By The Daily Crux
Hedge Fund Guru John Paulson Invests In Conseco (CNO)
Hedge Fund Guru John Paulson Invests In Conseco (CNO)
Conseco, Inc. (NYSE: CNO) announced today that, as part of a series of transactions intended to enhance its capital position, it entered into a stock and warrant purchase agreement with John Paulson's Paulson & Co. Inc., on behalf of the several investment funds and accounts managed by it, to sell to Paulson 16.4 million shares of common stock and warrants to purchase 5.0 million shares of common stock for an aggregate purchase price of $77.9 million.
By StreetInsider.com
Conseco, Inc. (NYSE: CNO) announced today that, as part of a series of transactions intended to enhance its capital position, it entered into a stock and warrant purchase agreement with John Paulson's Paulson & Co. Inc., on behalf of the several investment funds and accounts managed by it, to sell to Paulson 16.4 million shares of common stock and warrants to purchase 5.0 million shares of common stock for an aggregate purchase price of $77.9 million.
By StreetInsider.com
Iceland went from boom to bust and could be headed for a double dip. Could the same happen in the U.S.?
Iceland went from boom to bust and could be headed for a double dip. Could the same happen in the U.S.?
A ticking time bomb
In some ways, the recent bust represents a return to normalcy in Iceland. Despite the swaggering prosperity and meteoric rise in per-capita gross domestic product during the boom, Iceland historically has not had one of the world's "go-go" economies. The people were frugal and hard-working, but not worldly sophisticates. As late as the 1950s, many Icelanders didn't normally carry cash with them; they bartered for their needs. Credit cards were all but unheard of. Even now, according to the CIA World Factbook, 70% of Iceland's exports and 40% of its export earnings come from fishing and fish processing, which employ more than 5% of the entire workforce.
Despite the appearances of business as usual in bustling Reykjavik, the situation in Iceland remains grim. For now, people are enjoying themselves, and life goes on, as they use their income and savings to make payments on their debts. But this can't go on indefinitely, since many Icelanders borrowed in euros, while their income and savings are in the devalued kroner.
By Business Week
A ticking time bomb
In some ways, the recent bust represents a return to normalcy in Iceland. Despite the swaggering prosperity and meteoric rise in per-capita gross domestic product during the boom, Iceland historically has not had one of the world's "go-go" economies. The people were frugal and hard-working, but not worldly sophisticates. As late as the 1950s, many Icelanders didn't normally carry cash with them; they bartered for their needs. Credit cards were all but unheard of. Even now, according to the CIA World Factbook, 70% of Iceland's exports and 40% of its export earnings come from fishing and fish processing, which employ more than 5% of the entire workforce.
Despite the appearances of business as usual in bustling Reykjavik, the situation in Iceland remains grim. For now, people are enjoying themselves, and life goes on, as they use their income and savings to make payments on their debts. But this can't go on indefinitely, since many Icelanders borrowed in euros, while their income and savings are in the devalued kroner.
By Business Week
The Really, Really Simple Way To Fix The $592 Trillion Derivatives Market
The Really, Really Simple Way To Fix The $592 Trillion Derivatives Market
Once you've grasped that concept, the solution to systemic risk created by credit default swaps is easy. We just have to stop giving banks balance sheet credit for buying credit default swaps. That is, we need to require that banks set aside the full amount of capital we think they need to reserve against the risks on their balance sheets without regard to any "credit enhancements."
That's it. One simple change that doesn't require any new regulatory oversight or bans on trading derivatives.
By The Business Insider Clusterstock
Once you've grasped that concept, the solution to systemic risk created by credit default swaps is easy. We just have to stop giving banks balance sheet credit for buying credit default swaps. That is, we need to require that banks set aside the full amount of capital we think they need to reserve against the risks on their balance sheets without regard to any "credit enhancements."
That's it. One simple change that doesn't require any new regulatory oversight or bans on trading derivatives.
By The Business Insider Clusterstock
Jim Rogers: Coming Inflation Could Be "Worse Than The 1970s"
Jim Rogers: Coming Inflation Could Be "Worse Than The 1970s"
Right now, the problem is deflation. Some folks think deflation will remain the problem for years.
Jim Rogers doesn't know when deflation will stop being the problem, but he knows what the next problem will be: Inflation. And he thinks it will be worse than the 1970s.
Aaron Task, TechTicker: Given the Fed's extremely easy policies, runaway government spending and shortages of many commodities, inflation pressures are building and destined to get much worse, according to famed investor Jim Rogers of Rogers Holdings.
"The Federal Reserve has laid the groundwork for some serious inflation down the road by printing all this money," Rogers says. "So have many other central banks."
Although "the U.S. government lies about inflation" in its official data, inflationary pressures are already evident in nearly everything, excluding energy, Rogers says. Inflation is "going to continue, going to accelerate," he says. "We're going to be paying more for just about everything down the road."
Asked if he foresees a 1970s-style stagflation period ahead, Rogers chuckled and gave an ominous reply: "I hope it's that good. It might be much, much worse."
Given that view, Rogers remains very bullish on commodities as we discuss in subsequent clips
By Henry Blodget The Money Game
Right now, the problem is deflation. Some folks think deflation will remain the problem for years.
Jim Rogers doesn't know when deflation will stop being the problem, but he knows what the next problem will be: Inflation. And he thinks it will be worse than the 1970s.
Aaron Task, TechTicker: Given the Fed's extremely easy policies, runaway government spending and shortages of many commodities, inflation pressures are building and destined to get much worse, according to famed investor Jim Rogers of Rogers Holdings.
"The Federal Reserve has laid the groundwork for some serious inflation down the road by printing all this money," Rogers says. "So have many other central banks."
Although "the U.S. government lies about inflation" in its official data, inflationary pressures are already evident in nearly everything, excluding energy, Rogers says. Inflation is "going to continue, going to accelerate," he says. "We're going to be paying more for just about everything down the road."
Asked if he foresees a 1970s-style stagflation period ahead, Rogers chuckled and gave an ominous reply: "I hope it's that good. It might be much, much worse."
Given that view, Rogers remains very bullish on commodities as we discuss in subsequent clips
By Henry Blodget The Money Game
Monday, October 12, 2009
Kass: Four Stages of Market Turning Points
Kass: Four Stages of Market Turning Points
In March, I argued that stocks were at or near a generational bottom and I recently opined that U.S. equities have topped for the year.
It can be argued that there are four classical stages in a move from market bottom to market top and then back again
By Kirk Report, Street.com
In March, I argued that stocks were at or near a generational bottom and I recently opined that U.S. equities have topped for the year.
It can be argued that there are four classical stages in a move from market bottom to market top and then back again
By Kirk Report, Street.com
Are Manhattan Co-Ops Blocking Sales Because The Price Is Too Low?
Are Manhattan Co-Ops Blocking Sales Because The Price Is Too Low?
I just found out today after over 3 months work that my application is turned down without an interview or any explanation.
From the management feedback, my finances and package are solid. (in fact, they used the word "great".) Reading through another thread "Board Rejection", my case also looks like a price protection move. (very tempted to share the address, appraisal and contract price... gotta clear that w my attorney first.)
By Joe Weisenthal The Money Game
I just found out today after over 3 months work that my application is turned down without an interview or any explanation.
From the management feedback, my finances and package are solid. (in fact, they used the word "great".) Reading through another thread "Board Rejection", my case also looks like a price protection move. (very tempted to share the address, appraisal and contract price... gotta clear that w my attorney first.)
By Joe Weisenthal The Money Game
Is Goldman About To Become One Of The World’s Biggest Charitable Donors?
Is Goldman About To Become One Of The World’s Biggest Charitable Donors?
Inside Goldman Sachs there is serious consideration being given to a proposal that the firm donate billions of dollars to charity when it awards bonuses this year. The details of the plan are still being worked out and it is not clear how much support it has within the firm
By The Business Insider Clusterstock
Inside Goldman Sachs there is serious consideration being given to a proposal that the firm donate billions of dollars to charity when it awards bonuses this year. The details of the plan are still being worked out and it is not clear how much support it has within the firm
By The Business Insider Clusterstock
Segregated hedge funds pique interest of large investors
Segregated hedge funds pique interest of large investors
Some very large institutional investors are tiptoeing into segregated hedge funds.
Dismayed by managers that last year locked up, gated, froze or otherwise restricted redemptions, institutional investors are actively investigating moves into hedge investment vehicles that guarantee liquidity and investor control over the investment.
By Pensions and Investments
Some very large institutional investors are tiptoeing into segregated hedge funds.
Dismayed by managers that last year locked up, gated, froze or otherwise restricted redemptions, institutional investors are actively investigating moves into hedge investment vehicles that guarantee liquidity and investor control over the investment.
By Pensions and Investments
MUST READ: THE MUTUAL FUND INDUSTRY – INVESTORS DESERVE BETTER
MUST READ: THE MUTUAL FUND INDUSTRY – INVESTORS DESERVE BETTER
I was shocked to see the front page of Barron’s with the image of investing legend Bill Miller titled “He’s Back! - It’s Miller Time”. The article says Miller is back at the top of his game after a disastrous 2 year run. A closer look at Miller’s fund and the mutual fund industry actually shows a pervasive and destructive problem on Wall Street - a total and complete lack of risk management.
By Pragmatic Capitalist
I was shocked to see the front page of Barron’s with the image of investing legend Bill Miller titled “He’s Back! - It’s Miller Time”. The article says Miller is back at the top of his game after a disastrous 2 year run. A closer look at Miller’s fund and the mutual fund industry actually shows a pervasive and destructive problem on Wall Street - a total and complete lack of risk management.
By Pragmatic Capitalist
Sunday, October 11, 2009
The Cause of Bubbles=Financial Engineering vs Investing
The Cause of Bubbles=Financial Engineering vs Investing
The only way to address executive compensation and the inevitable boom and bust cycles that will happen in perpetuity in this country is to finally recognize the difference between financial engineering and investing. For some reason no one in any of our regulatory agencies seems to want to admit or deal with the differences. Too much pressure from Wall Street ?
In any event, the following is a post from a year ago. I thought it was worth republishing.
Let me get this straight. In 2008, funds trying to squeeze out another basis point or two thought they were being conservative buying insurance on heavily leveraged portfolios of sub prime loans and other debt. Once those loans started to default, it created a cascading deleveraging event which lead to major financial institutions failing and the “smartest” minds on Wall Street being forced to dump everything to raise cash, which in turn lead to a crisis of confidence and deleveraging that created the worst week in the history of the stock markets. Did I get this right ?
By Mark Cuban Blog Maverick
The only way to address executive compensation and the inevitable boom and bust cycles that will happen in perpetuity in this country is to finally recognize the difference between financial engineering and investing. For some reason no one in any of our regulatory agencies seems to want to admit or deal with the differences. Too much pressure from Wall Street ?
In any event, the following is a post from a year ago. I thought it was worth republishing.
Let me get this straight. In 2008, funds trying to squeeze out another basis point or two thought they were being conservative buying insurance on heavily leveraged portfolios of sub prime loans and other debt. Once those loans started to default, it created a cascading deleveraging event which lead to major financial institutions failing and the “smartest” minds on Wall Street being forced to dump everything to raise cash, which in turn lead to a crisis of confidence and deleveraging that created the worst week in the history of the stock markets. Did I get this right ?
By Mark Cuban Blog Maverick
The Pension Crisis
The Pension Crisis
Within 15 years, public systems on average will have less half the money they need to pay pension benefits, according to an analysis by Pricewaterhouse Coopers. Other analysts say funding levels could hit that low within a decade. After losing about $1 trillion in the markets, state and local governments are facing a devil's choice: Either slash retirement benefits or pursue high-return investments that come with high risk. ...Some pension experts say the funding gap has become so great that no investment strategy can close it and that taxpayers will have to cover the massive bill.
By Calculated Risk
Within 15 years, public systems on average will have less half the money they need to pay pension benefits, according to an analysis by Pricewaterhouse Coopers. Other analysts say funding levels could hit that low within a decade. After losing about $1 trillion in the markets, state and local governments are facing a devil's choice: Either slash retirement benefits or pursue high-return investments that come with high risk. ...Some pension experts say the funding gap has become so great that no investment strategy can close it and that taxpayers will have to cover the massive bill.
By Calculated Risk
The Pension Crisis
The Pension Crisis
Within 15 years, public systems on average will have less half the money they need to pay pension benefits, according to an analysis by Pricewaterhouse Coopers. Other analysts say funding levels could hit that low within a decade. After losing about $1 trillion in the markets, state and local governments are facing a devil's choice: Either slash retirement benefits or pursue high-return investments that come with high risk. ...Some pension experts say the funding gap has become so great that no investment strategy can close it and that taxpayers will have to cover the massive bill.
By Calculated Risk
Within 15 years, public systems on average will have less half the money they need to pay pension benefits, according to an analysis by Pricewaterhouse Coopers. Other analysts say funding levels could hit that low within a decade. After losing about $1 trillion in the markets, state and local governments are facing a devil's choice: Either slash retirement benefits or pursue high-return investments that come with high risk. ...Some pension experts say the funding gap has become so great that no investment strategy can close it and that taxpayers will have to cover the massive bill.
By Calculated Risk
Cocaine Survivors Losing London Bonus See End to Bubble’s Binge
Cocaine Survivors Losing London Bonus See End to Bubble’s Binge
“Doing cocaine or drinking heavily is part of the City culture; you work hard and you play hard and you get rewarded because your bonus is fantastic,” says Hopley, a consultant at The Priory, a group that runs several mental health centers. When the bonuses are cut and many of your friends lose their livelihoods, things no longer look so good.
Brain Rush
“A number of people now tell me: ‘I finally realize what a shit job I have got,’” Hopley says. “‘If it wasn’t for the bonus, I wouldn’t be working these hours and I wouldn’t be working with these people.’” The number of people in the finance industry coming to see him has jumped by about 15 percent this year, he says.
By Bloomberg.com
“Doing cocaine or drinking heavily is part of the City culture; you work hard and you play hard and you get rewarded because your bonus is fantastic,” says Hopley, a consultant at The Priory, a group that runs several mental health centers. When the bonuses are cut and many of your friends lose their livelihoods, things no longer look so good.
Brain Rush
“A number of people now tell me: ‘I finally realize what a shit job I have got,’” Hopley says. “‘If it wasn’t for the bonus, I wouldn’t be working these hours and I wouldn’t be working with these people.’” The number of people in the finance industry coming to see him has jumped by about 15 percent this year, he says.
By Bloomberg.com
Goldman's $22 Billion Bonus Bonanza
Goldman's $22 Billion Bonus Bonanza
More than anyone else, Goldman Sachs (GS) is the one financial institutions for whom profits remain a big liability. Everyone loves to mock their monster earnings and the huge bonuses the bank pays out.
The lates volley from from The Telegraph, which estimates that the bank is on track to pay $22 billion in bonuses this year, or about $700,000 per employee.
By The Business Insider- Clusterstock
More than anyone else, Goldman Sachs (GS) is the one financial institutions for whom profits remain a big liability. Everyone loves to mock their monster earnings and the huge bonuses the bank pays out.
The lates volley from from The Telegraph, which estimates that the bank is on track to pay $22 billion in bonuses this year, or about $700,000 per employee.
By The Business Insider- Clusterstock
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